Projected line: Miami by 8 points | 181 points
Miami is coming from a very physical home win over the Bulls yesterday, so this is a flat spot for them today, on a back to back game against the lowly Hornets today. On back to back games, Miami has been averaging a pace of 88.43, offensive rates of 102.4 and defensive rates of 103.8, so the struggles of the Heat are well documented on back to back spots due to the aggressive style they use on their games. Yesterday, Lebron played 41min, Wade 31min and Bosh 37min!
On the other side, the Hornets came out flat against the Hawks and wound up losing 94-72. I believe Jason Smith put it best when he said, “That’s not Hornets basketball. It’s not what the fans deserve. It’s not what the coaches deserve”. The Hawks led the game by 27-6, but what they them a huge edge was their 34-24 on Offensive rebounds/rate! With this domination on the boards by Atlanta, New Orleans was never able to recover. This was weird, as New Orleans has been a great rebounding team, but against Atlanta, they had just 45% of the boards, while in their previous three games, they have had 60, 53 and 58% of the boards! I expect a bounce back from New Orleans in terms of effort today!
Miami has been having some problems on the boards lately and even though the Hornets may have some problems on transitions, as they have been having problems with turnovers, I don't like the mindset of the Heat for today. I believe the Hornets will have a clear edge in terms of mentality and effort for today and so, I'll take them in here. I also expect the Hornets to show their good defense today in front of a tired team of the Heat on a flat spot and therefore, I came up with a totals projection of 181 points, low enough for me to take the under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 New Orleans Hornets (+11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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