Saturday, January 21, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/20: Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - 811 Memphis Grizzlies @ 812 Detroit Pistons

Projected line: Memphis by 8 points | 184 points

The Pistons won't have both Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey tonight, so their backcourt will be completely shorthanded, as they will only have available for tonight rookie Brandon Knight, Ben Gordon and nobody else! Their backcourt depth is so thin that they had to call Walker Russell Jr from the DLeague! With their backcourt problems and with their rookie Knight running the show, Detroit will surely commit a lot of turnovers today and when a team commits a lot of turnovers against Memphis, they are pretty much screwed. In fact, the Pistons committed 20 and 19 turnovers on their last two games and the reason why they were outscored in the 4th quarter by 14-29 at Minnesota was exactly the turnovers. Take a look at this:

4th Quarter play-by-play:
10:22 Shot clock turnover
9:56 Rodney Stuckey bad pass
3:04 Greg Monroe bad pass (Ricky Rubio steals)
2:38  Ben Gordon bad pass (Ricky Rubio steals)
1:50  Brandon Knight offensive charge (Ricky Rubio draws the foul)
0:01 Brandon Knight lost ball (Kevin Love steals)

Note that Memphis is #2 in the league in transition plays with 1.24 PPP and against a poor transition defense like the Pistons (#24 while allowing 1.21 PPP), the edge in favor of Memphis will be huge! Detroit's offense desperately needs Monroe to produce and today, we will have a very tough matchup against Marc Gasol. Prince is coming from a monster game against the Wolves, but where he didn't have defensive worries against the poor SF's of Minnesota, but today we will have a lot of work with Rudy Gay. The bad interior defense and the team help defense from Detroit will be easily explored by the aggressive of Memphis and therefore, I expect them to have a very comfortable win tonight. I'm taking the Grizzlies in here. I expect Memphis to have a big offensive game tonight and so, I'll take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811 Memphis Grizzlies (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Over 180,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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