Monday, January 30, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/29: Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets

NBA - 803 Toronto Raptors @ 804 New Jersey Nets

Projected line: New Jersey by 8 points


Deron Williams has been playing very well lately and with that, the Nets offensive dimension is clearly other. I took the Nets on a Double Dime Play on their last game at Cleveland, knowing that the team would have a good offense and that was confirmed: Deron 9-18 FG 27pts and 10ast! He has been having excellent chemistry with Morrow and the Nets backcourt is really clicking right now! In that game Okur was out and Humphries questionable with the flu and with that, the Nets were outrebounded by Cleveland, but Humphries still had 18pts and 11reb! Right now, the Nets playing style is based on scoring from the perimeter and grab offensive boards! For today, they will have a favorable matchup against Toronto!

First of all, Deron will have a clear edge over Calderon, who is playing good basketball, but he won't be able to stop Deron's penetrations to the basket! Toronto had two nice road wins with Bargnani being the offensive anchor, but he's out once again! Kleiza was the PF on their last game at Denver and with him being the starter today, New Jersey will have a huge matchup advantage on the frontcourt with Humphries going head to head with Kleiza.

These two teams have already faced each other this season, with the Nets winning outright at Toronto, despite shooting 38,8% FG vs 45,2% FG from the Raptors! The Nets won that game thanks to their edge in boards and turnovers! For today, I expect the Nets to repeat the edge on the boards once again. Offensively, Toronto has a lot of problems without Bargnani, as they need their perimeter to score and DeRozan is currently in a huge shooting slump and today his matchup won't be easy, as he will face the defensive specialist Stevenson. Looking at all of this, I believe the Nets will have a very comfortable win today and so, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 New Jersey Nets (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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