Projected line: 183 points
***TOP PLAY***
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This is an important game in emotional terms for both teams, as a win in here will clearly be a statement game, especially on National TV! Even shorthanded, the Bulls have been winning their games and with some super good offensive efficiency numbers: 132.8, 121.8, 110.4, 137.9, 96.41 and 117.9 on their last 6 games (obviously, the 96.41 was against Indiana, a great defensive team!). However, we need to filter these last games in order to understand if Chicago will be in conditions to have another good offensive game today! And I don't think so! Think of the sequence of these games. Chicago faced Phoenix, Cleveland, Charlotte and New Jersey, four opponents who were completely outmuscled by the Bulls! Chicago simply ran over them, as their frontline completely dominated the glass, with the Bulls shooting a combined of 66-100 FG at the rim, a 66% FG clip when their season average is just 62%! Then against Indiana, the Bulls offense was limited and then against Milwaukee, I expected the game to be a clear half court game, but thanks to the Bucks, the game was played at a super fast pace for the standards of the Bulls and therefore, we had a shootout in that game! Chicago smashed the Bucks on the boards with 20 offensive boards and 20-32 FG at the rim! For today, I expect Chicago to struggle in scoring near the basket, even though I think Chicago will have an edge on the boards, however scoring at the rim will be a different story, as Miami is the 2nd best team in defending at the rim by allowing just 56.8% FG! One of the reasons for this good run of Chicago has been Boozer + Noah (in the team's last game, they shot 8-15 FG and 6-10 FG), but with the excellent rim defense of Miami, Chicago will be ultra dependent on Rose!
On the other side, I also expect some struggles for the Heat offense. We all know that Miami has been a team with a high volume of shooting at the rim and if I mentioned that Miami is the #2 best team in defending the rim, guess who is the #1? Yes, that's Chicago by allowing just 56.5% FG! So, Miami won't have any less problems in scoring at the rim tonight than the Bulls! Wade came back to the lineup in the team's last game against the Knicks and Miami scored 99 points, with both Wade and Lebron having big games: Wade with 11-19 FG and Lebron with 11-18 FG. However, I didn't like the ball movement of Miami, as note that they had just 17 assists for their 37 FG made: a bad 45.95% A/rate! I did some mysynergy work and Miami had 20 ISO plays, in which they scored 0.95 PPP for 7-16 FG and these are signs of a stagnant offense! If against the Knicks that worked, I don't expect that to work against a top defensive team like the Bulls!
Chicago has been a team whose pace has been varied a lot, however I expect coach Thibs to try to avoid this game to be played at a fast pace! In every slow paced games the Heat have played this season, they saw their offense struggling and I'm sure Chicago's game plan for today will be to turn this game into a slow one and let their frontcourt dominate the glass and rely on Rose on the offensive end. Therefore, I came up with a projection line of 183 points, low enough for me to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!
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