NBA - 503 New Orleans Hornets @ 504 Houston Rockets
Projected line: Houston by 6 points
This is basically a technical play based on matchups that immediately offers value on long term. Forget that Houston is 7-0 ATS on their last 7 games and that the Hornets are 1-9 SU on their last 10 games. This play is based on matchups, in which the Hornets have some advantage and that should make this contest closer than most people would expect.
Houston is on a good run with Kyle Lowry being in my opinion one of the best 3 PG's on the NBA this season. They are 10th on eFG on this league, but on the other side, they are dead last in FT/rate, with just 20.4%! One of their biggest strengths is their ability in grabbing offensive rebounds. They are 2nd in the league in this department by grabbing 29.95% of their available chances! Only Chicago is better than them (by the way, note that New Orleans is 3rd with 28.89%). However, if a team is capable of preventing them from grabbing offensive rebounds, they immediately struggle, as they don't get a lot of Free Throws, they need good shooting numbers and extra possessions to remain efficient on offense! And they will face the Hornets tonight, who are the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the league with 76.94%! On the other side, Houston is just 16th in grabbing defensive rebounds and so, we can expect the Hornets to have more ball possessions than the Rockets tonight and this will be decisive to make New Orleans very competitive tonight!
Offensively, the Hornets are very limited in ball handling and yesterday against Memphis, they committed 18 turnovers. Their TO/rate season average isn't pretty at all, with 15.18%! Fortunately for them, Houston's defense doesn't put a lot of pressure in the ball handler, as they are a quite passive team on this department: 3rd worst team in the league in creating turnovers! In the middle of such mediocrity in New Orleans' offense, we can find two bright spots: #2 on offensive rebounding with 1.16 PPP vs #20 Houston defense which allows 1.03 PPP plus #5 on P&R Ball Handler with 0.86 PPP (Jarrett Jack has been amazing on those!) vs #23 Houston defense which allows 0.83 PPP! Basically, we are talking about a mediocre offense which few strengths are exactly where the Rockets generally struggle on defense! Note that Jordan Hill is out for this contest and so, Houston will have little depth on the frontcourt tonight.
This game basically remembers what happened in game between the Nuggets and the Hornets in Denver, where New Orleans won outright, as they were able to win the boards battle and use their half court game to make the fast break offense of the Nuggets struggle. I'm not saying that the Hornets will win this game outright, but I don't believe this will be an easy game for the Rockets. Therefore, I'll be taking New Orleans tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 New Orleans Hornets (+9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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