Projected line: 196 points
For this game, we have two teams who are tired in theory, as the Clippers will be playing a b2b game, while Memphis is on a road trip and they will play tonight their 5th game in 7 days, so the logic would be for these two teams to play sluggish basketball and the under would then be the logical play in here. However, we have to go further in our analysis and looking at the fundamentals, I believe we have value on the over, as I have a projected line of 196 points!
The Clippers had yesterday a physical game against the Lakers and even though it was a good game, we can't ignore the fact that they didn't have to travel for this game and that no starter played more than 34min tonight! With this being a national tv game, we can expect the Clippers to play with aggressivenss for sure! They made yesterday a decent offensive game, but they completely failed where they are supposedly one of the best teams in the league: Pick n' Roll plays! They went 3-15 FG in P&R Ball Handler plays for just 0.38 PPP, which is weird, having in account the Clippers are simply the best team in the league in this kind of plays with 0.90 PPP! CP3 played his first game after injury and he was a bit rusty at shooting the ball (but he was excellent in passing the ball with 12ast and 0TO!) and also Billups didn't have a good shooting night with 1-8 FG! The starting backcourt duo went 3-16 FG and this explains the biggest reason why the Clippers lost!
For tonight, I expect a bounce back form the Clippers on this department as Memphis defense is just #22 in defending P&R Ball Handler with 0.81 PPP! To add to that, the Clippers have more matchup advantages against the scrambling defense of Memphis, as we know the Grizzlies gamble too much while trying to get turnovers, but against a disciplined offensive team, they have defensive problems and the Clippers is one of the best teams in preventing turnovers as expected (having CP3 really helps!) and so, Memphis bad defensive metric in spot up plays (#25 by allowing 1.01 PPP) and in cuts (#25 with 1.26PPP allowed) will get exposed tonight! Then, we have the big edge in the PF's matchup Griffin vs Speights, as the Grizzlies PF isn't a good defensive player and Griffin has a great opportunity to shine on national tv tonight!
On the other side, I expect Memphis to be super aggressive tonight! I was disappointed with their performance at Golden State, where they were too passive in their first three quarters of the game, but then they unleashed their aggressiveness in the final quarter. In the first 36 minutes of the game, they had 0 fast break points and just 6 FT, but in the 4th quarter they woke up and were super aggressive, with 16 fast break points and 17 FT in just one quarter! Then, they obviously didn't have the legs on a back to back game against the physical team of Portland and scored just 18 and 13 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters! With this being a national tv game, we can expect Memphis to be alert and active on the offensive end and they have some edges that they will explore: transition!
On the other side, I expect Memphis to be super aggressive tonight! I was disappointed with their performance at Golden State, where they were too passive in their first three quarters of the game, but then they unleashed their aggressiveness in the final quarter. In the first 36 minutes of the game, they had 0 fast break points and just 6 FT, but in the 4th quarter they woke up and were super aggressive, with 16 fast break points and 17 FT in just one quarter! Then, they obviously didn't have the legs on a back to back game against the physical team of Portland and scored just 18 and 13 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters! With this being a national tv game, we can expect Memphis to be alert and active on the offensive end and they have some edges that they will explore: transition!
Memphis is averaging 17.60 fast break points per game, while they are #4 in transition plays with 1.20 PPP against the bad transition defense of the Clippers (#29 by allowing 1.23 PPP!). We can't also forget that we are talking about two teams who are in the bottom 10 on defensive rebounding teams in the league (LAC #21 with 72,3% & MEM #22 with 72.2%), while at the same time they are in the top 10 on offensive rebounds, so we can expect a lot of second chance points for both teams tonight! Looking at all these edges, I came up with a totals projection line of 196 points, high enough for me to take the over in here!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment