Projected line: 176 points
Orlando
is coming from a surprising blowout loss at Boston. The Celtics were
playing without their starting
back court – Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen and three other players,
including Chris Wilcox and former Magic players Keyon Dooling and
Mickael Pietrus. Boston actually continued to struggle on the
offensive end, which should have been expected with their mounting
injuries. They posted an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%.
Their defense, however, was amazing! Couple that defense with a
terrible effort from Orlando and that’s how you get numbers like the
Magic had tonight. Jameer Nelson was dominated by second-year guard
Avery Bradley! After a very good start (12 points and four rebounds in
the first quarter), Dwight Howard had also a frustrating night, with
Boston having the plan of being physical against Howard the whole game,
as the Magic perimeter was struggling heavily. Orlando finished the game
with 5-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-16 3pts! We could expect a bounce
back from Orlando, but tonight's game won't be any easier!
Indiana's perimeter defense is excellent, they execute the closeouts extremely well,so it will be hard for the slow footed Magic perimeter to be efficient on their plays. So, the question will be once again in Howard and the Pacers have a good frontcourt capable of making Howard work hard tonight! Note that Indiana is allowing just 59% FG at the rim! On the other side, Indiana is coming from a great game at LA against the Lakers, especially on their perimeter. However, note that they continue not to be a good shooting team and they need boards and create turnovers to generate offense. In fact, they are #2 in the league with 1.14 PPP on Offensive Rebound plays. However, Orlando is obviously one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league with Howard and therefore, I expect the Pacers to struggle in grabbing offensive rebounds today.
I expect this game to be a slow paced game, with both teams showing why they are billed as two of the best defensive teams in the league. The Pacers have exactly what it takes to stop Orlando's perimeter game while giving some trouble to Howard, while the Magic won't allow Indiana to have their much needed second chance points to compensate their overall poor offense. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection line of 176 points, low enough for me to take the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Indiana's perimeter defense is excellent, they execute the closeouts extremely well,so it will be hard for the slow footed Magic perimeter to be efficient on their plays. So, the question will be once again in Howard and the Pacers have a good frontcourt capable of making Howard work hard tonight! Note that Indiana is allowing just 59% FG at the rim! On the other side, Indiana is coming from a great game at LA against the Lakers, especially on their perimeter. However, note that they continue not to be a good shooting team and they need boards and create turnovers to generate offense. In fact, they are #2 in the league with 1.14 PPP on Offensive Rebound plays. However, Orlando is obviously one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league with Howard and therefore, I expect the Pacers to struggle in grabbing offensive rebounds today.
I expect this game to be a slow paced game, with both teams showing why they are billed as two of the best defensive teams in the league. The Pacers have exactly what it takes to stop Orlando's perimeter game while giving some trouble to Howard, while the Magic won't allow Indiana to have their much needed second chance points to compensate their overall poor offense. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection line of 176 points, low enough for me to take the under in here.
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