NBA - 503 Philadelphia 76ers @ 504 Miami Heat
Projected line: 185 points | Miami by 13 points
***TOP PLAYS***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY + DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I
know we have a lot of units in stake on this game, but it's the value
that matters. If somehow Miami's line had opened for this game at -6, I
would take both Miami and the under in here in Triple Dime Plays, with
no hesitation. We may even lose both plays, as nothing is certain on
sports betting, however on long term, I can guarantee you that we will
crush the sportsbooks with this kind of plays.
I must say I really like the Sixers as a team and even though their
schedule has been quite easy early on this season, they really deserve
credit for their current great record, especially with their defensive
mentality during all their games. However, for tonight, this is surely
the worst spot that they will find this season and even though I have no
doubts they won't give up and they'll keep grind in, their physical
spot for this contest is just too tough to handle. They will be playing
their 3rd game in 4 nights, having played last night, so this is also a
back to back games for them. They had a very physical game at home
against Denver last Wednesday and their reward in that game was 5 more
minutes of basketball on overtime. Then, yesterday, they had another
very physical game against the Hawks, where from all the players, I
highlight Elton Brand who looked like the same player he once was with
the Clippers in 2005/2006, as he had in 37 minutes 10pts 16reb and 3blk!
But today, fatigue will be inevitable for this team. And they have no
chance, especially against another very athletic team.
I expect a lot of problems on the Sixers offense for tonight. They
have little volume on the inside, with just about 24% of their shots are
at the rim, but they use to have good efficiency with 71% FG!
Philadelphia is one of the teams who shoots more long two's, as about
30% of their shots are from this area and when they face a team who can
close them the paint, they become highly dependent from their perimeter
game. The problem for tonight is that Miami is one of the best teams in
the league in defending the rim, with just 54% FG allowed. Yesterday,
the Sixers just couldn't hit from the outside and today with tired legs,
they will be in trouble once again. In a certain way, this reminds me
of their game at NY against the Knicks, where the Sixers were on a back
to back to back spot and they weren't able to score more than 79 points
against the marginal defensive team of the Knicks.
On the other side, Miami will have an athletic edge and especially,
an interesting edge that they will surely explore. Like I've said
several times before, the Heat are a team who likes to attack the paint
where they score or go to the Free Throw line. This is the team's
mentality and their high volume of shots at the rim is the proof of that
(34.1%)! Philadelphia is a great defensive team with an excellent
perimeter defense, but they aren't an elite rim defense, as they allow
64% FG on this area. As they will be once again without their starting
center Spencer Hawes for this contest, their frontcourt will be composed
by a tired Elton Brand and the rookie Nikola Vucevic and that's too
short against Miami! However, I don't expect a huge offensive game by
the Heat tonight, as the Sixers never give up and especially their
playing style prevents them from highly damaged on their defense. They
aren't a team that commits a lot of turnovers (a league low 11.55%
TO/rate!) and especially, they are one of the best teams in defending
transition plays (#3 with just 0.97 PPP allowed). Miami will make some
damage because of Lebron and their red hot outside shooting, but it
won't be a walkover by any means!
Finally, the question of the pace of this game. We know that Miami
loves to push up the pace, but they are also a team that has no problems
in slowing down the pace as well. Actually, we won our Double Dime Play
on the Under Miami/Lakers game exactly thanks to that, as the Heat had
an offensive efficiency on that game of 112.3! If that number was
applied to the average pace of Miami this season, the Heat would have
scored 105 points in that game, but they scored "just" 98 points because
this game was played at a much lower pace than their average this
season. Philadelphia is also a team that likes to come to their offense
with some speed, but they are a team who also adapts very well to any
kind of game, just like Miami. So, the key question in here is to know
what the Sixers' head coach Doug Collins thinks about this game. I
strongly believe that he will give orders to their players to slow down
the pace because he knows of the physical mismatch the Sixers are into
tonight and he will trust more on their elite defense than in the
Herculean task of trying to outscore the Heat on this contest. For that,
we have an excellent sample of what happened last season in the head to
head. In the regular season, Miami swept Philadelphia by 3-0 with the
average pace of those games being 90.10! However, in the playoffs series
between these two teams and even though Miami won the series by 4-1,
the Heat just had one blowout win, with their other three wins being
quite close. So, how did the Sixers stay competitive against Miami?
Well, look at the pace of those games: 85.80, 85.23, 82.83, 85.57,
84.23! I have no doubts that Philadelphia will try to execute a similar
gameplan for tonight.
Therefore, I expect a low scoring game for this game tonight, where
Miami will be able to execute a defensive lockdown on the Sixers,
winning this game very easily. Considering all these facts, I'll be
taking the under in here in a Triple Dime Play and Miami on a Double
Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 504 Miami Heat (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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