Thursday, January 26, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/25: Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - 707 Miami Heat @ 708 Detroit Pistons

Projection line: Miami by 12 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
This is a back to back for Miami, who is coming from a flat performance against Cleveland, where they had problems to score in transition, something normal as the Cavs are the best transition defense in the league! This is supposedly a bad spot for Miami, with a back to back game on the road, but the matchup edges are so big that Miami won't have problems in blowing out the Pistons!

Detroit is once again shorthanded in the backcourt, with just the rookie Knight and Stuckey on the lineup and then Wilkins on the bench as a guard and that's all! So, Detroit is struggling on both ends of the floor on the backcourt. Miami is the 3rd best team in the league in forcing turnovers and with their defensive pressure, we can expect the Pistons to commit a lot of turnovers tonight and that's the end of the line against Miami. Unlike Cleveland, Detroit has a poor transition defense (#26 with 1.21 PPP allowed). Prince is just too old to guard Lebron and Detroit's power forwards are just too skinny to handle Bosh!

On the other side, Miami will easily shut down Detroit's offense. The Pistons need a big game from Monroe badly, as he is clearly their best offensive player, but on his last game against the Thunder, he shot just 3-14 FG and of course the Pistons scored just 79 points. Miami has the best rim defense in the league by allowing just 56% FG and so, I don't expect a big game from Monroe tonight. I believe this will be a very easy win for Miami tonight and therefore, I'll take them in here.

NOTE: Prince is out for tonight due to personal reasons and Wilkins will start on his place, so expect even less problems for Miami tonight!

Pick: 2 units on 707 Miami Heat (-4,5) FIRST HALF @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 707 Miami Heat (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

No comments:

Post a Comment