NBA - 501 Los Angeles Lakers @ 502 Miami Heat
Projected line: 185 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
As we have a short card today, I have enough time to write a deep analysis on our plays. I am very confident we will be back tonight on our big winning nights. This game in terms of handicapping is very curious because we have two teams in here who are completely different in terms of their playing style. On one side, we have Miami with an average pace of 94.57 (2nd fastest in the league, right behind Denver), while on the other side we have the Lakers, who is the typical half court team, with just the 20th fastest pace in the league. So, will this game have a similar pace to a regular Miami or a Lakers game? Well, I have no doubts it will be more similar to a regular Lakers game and that means a half court game. Every time Miami has faced a slow paced team this season, those games were played on a slow pace: 87.90 vs ATL, 87.20 vs ATL again, 88.20 vs LAC and even 88.20 vs SAS on their last game! As you can see, all these games were played on a much slower pace than the season average of Miami.
Tonight, the Lakers gameplan will be quite simple: slow down the pace and try to take advantage of their size edge down low. However, I don't believe the Lakers will have any offensive edge for this contest. Even though they have a powerful frontcourt with Bynum and Gasol, their average volume at the rim is a ridiculously low 23.2% vs 28.9% volume on 16-23 feet! This is the result of the continuous poor shot selections of the Lakers offense, who are just too Kobe-centric! Considering Kobe's mindset, I don't believe this will change a lot tonight. Miami's defense is once again a Top 3 team in defending the rim by allowing just 54% FG! I know the Lakers have a size advantage on the frontcourt, but the defensive system of the Heat makes them have a great team help defense. The Lakers have been good on offense in Isolation plays (#9 with 0.80 PPP), P&R Ball Handler (#4 with 0.87 PPP) and Cuts (#1 with 1.41 PPP), but Miami is a Top 10 defensive team is all these kinds of plays! So, I believe there will be a tremendous pressure on Kobe tonight and even without Wade, Miami still has plenty of good perimeter defenders to cover Kobe, especially Battier and even Lebron!
On the other side, Miami is just killing their opponents with their transition plays and at the rim, but with the Lakers having a size advantage, this will be a problem for the Heat tonight. The Lakers are allowing just 61% at the rim and 31% FG from 3-9 feet, so Miami will need to shoot well from the outside. I know they are coming from a historic performance against San Antonio, where they shot 16-26 3pts, but it's highly unlikely that Lebron can shoot 4-6 3pts again and basically impossible to see Miller shooting 6-6 3pts once again!
Therefore, I expect this game to be a classic half court game, especially considering the pace of the two games played between these two teams last season (81.77 and 85.15). Miami's offense can kill you on the break, but in the half court they continue to have some problems. On the other side, I just don't trust the Lakers offense and against a good defense like Miami, things get even tougher for them. Therefore, I believe this totals line was set way too high and so, I'll take the under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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