Friday, January 31, 2014

NBA Free Premium Play 01/31: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic

  
Milwaukee  at Orlando 
NBA - 801 Milwaukee Bucks @ 802 Orlando Magic

Play #1


In this contest we’ll have IMO a classic game between two lowly teams without any kind of defensive aggression.

ORL has been struggling offensively lately because without Vucevic, they are a pure guard-oriented team that doesn’t have the proper offensive talent to generate easy points. The good news is that Vucevic returned in the last and in just 21 minutes he was effective w/ 6-12 FG 4-4 FT, 16 pts and 10 reb.

Still, ORL struggled to score vs. TOR because their guards were just terrible: Nelson 5-15 FG, Afflalo 4-11 FG and Oladipo 3-14 FG! Well, it was a bad spot for them (b2b game) and TOR defense is quite good defending P&R plays.
For tonight, ORL had one day off to rest, Vucevic will play without restrictions and… ORL will face a terrible defensive team in the Bucks = offensive bounce back performance!

The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense…

Their head coach has confirmed that he will play some small ball tonight w/ 2 pure guards in Knight & Wolters and so I expect MIL to be more an up tempo team. B. Knight has been one of the few decent offensive players for the team and I expect him to have the edge vs. slow footed J. Nelson in his matchup.

My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

2 comments:

  1. It looks like you posted this at 6:18 EST, and yet the line you say you bet it at has been gone for at LEAST 5 hours on bookmaker, and gone everywhere for the last 2 hours. You can't get within a point of the line you got it at right now, 20 minutes after you posted, and it's not ecause you moved the market. If you are saying bet it at anything under 198, you need to be more clear, because this just looks like handicapper stat-padding.

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  2. Fella, I posted the play on twitter @ 2:31 PM EST (https://twitter.com/GomesCapper/status/429336122683310081). The write up was added later on the blog.

    Regards

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