NBA Premium Card 01/07

NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #4

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

It might sound strange but I really think the wrong team is favored tonight and so, I’m taking the Grizzlies to not only cover the spread but also win the game.

MEM is simply CRUSHING their opponents on the boards. Last game, against one of the best rebounding teams in the league, MEM crushed the Pistons on the glass w/ 57.5% reb/rate% or 59-43 total reb. edge + 19-12 offensive rebounds. In the L10 games, their reb/rate% is 56.8% = INSANE!

This is will be the X factor for tonight because the Spurs are without Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw is banged up. Also, the Spurs post up defense has been subpar lately, and I really think the Grizzlies will torch the Spurs in this particular area.

Obviously, the Spurs will have some edge on the backcourt but note that after some bad games after returning from an injury, Mike Conley is finally playing at his best: in L4 games he has averaged 18.8 points per game & 7.3 assists per game. Conley won’t be an easy matchup for Tony Parker tonight…

SAS bench was the key for them to being 2-0 vs. MEM this season but MEM bench has been decent lately. Davis and Leuer are coming from pretty big games @DET w/ 7-11 & 8-13 FG, so not only MEM starting frontcourt will dominate down low but also, MEM will have the same edge w/ their bench.

With MEM getting more rebounds, they will dominate the flow of the game, and at their style they are tough to beat, especially when their opponent is shorthanded on the front. I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Triple Dime Play!

Split the Wager: 80% Spread / 20% Moneyline

Pick: 4 units (Triple Dime Play) on 512 Memphis Grizzlies (+6) @  -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 1 unit (Triple Dime Play) on 512 Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline @ +205 / 3.05 on Bookmaker

NBA - 515 Golden State Warriors @ 516 Milwaukee Bucks

Play #1

GSW is rolling right now, and if they are able to be “just” decent from long range, their offense is simply devastating. David Lee is playing his best basketball of season and so, GSW has now a well balanced offense.

I don’t think the Bucks defense will be able to shut them down b/c when you are allowing their opponents to hit 42.8% 3pts% in L10 games (worst mark in the league!), good things won’t happen vs. GSW and that’s the case w/ MIL for tonight.

However, I really think the Bucks will be quite decent offensively. Note that in L2 games, they lost both games despite having better FG%’s than their opponents: 47.4% vs. 44.4 % @UTA and 54.4% vs. 48.2% @PHX! Their problem has been bad rebounding, high number of TO’s and some poor outside shooting.

B. Knight has been playing well lately and Ilyasova is playing better as well. This bodes well for MIL offense, because S. Curry and D. Lee are far from being good defensive players, and so MIL will enjoy 2 key positional edges on the offensive end. GSW is playing @super fast pace and I expect this contest to be run and gun game w/ GSW taking advantage of MIL’s bad perimeter defense while MIL will be efficient w/ Knight & Ilyasova, therefore I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 199 @  -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 523 Portland Trail Blazers @ 524 Sacramento Kings

Play #2

This SAC team is a “case study” because after being competitive against SAS & HOU (2-0 ATS and they even defeated the Rockets on the road), the Kings laid consecutive eggs at home against PHI & CHA.

Some reports about the team are saying that a players-only meeting happened this last Sunday, so I’m expecting a natural bounce back tonight:

“I believe we play with more urgency or fear when we play against (top) teams, so we kind of depend on each other more then,” center DeMarcus Cousins said. “When we play one of the lower-caliber teams, we feel like we can do it by ourselves. Once we balance that out and realize we need each other each night, I feel like then we’ll come out and have consistent games no matter who the team is.”

Despite being an elite team , POR doesn’t match up well against SAC…

POR isn’t a good interior defensive team at all. Actually, they are THE WORST paint defensive team in the league allowing 49.4 ppg. Also their P&R defense is quite subpar, ranked only #22 defending Pick n Rolls Ball handler plays.

These 2 facts are great news for SAC! First of all, SAC is averaging 51.6 points in the paint in L5 games and I expect them to dominate down low vs. POR. This will be the 3rd h2h between these two teams and despite POR is 2-0, just look for D. Cousins numbers against them:

13-25 FG, 9-10 FT for 35 pts, 9 reb & 13-24 FG, 7-11 FT for 33 pts and 12 rebounds.

Isaiah Thomas is a tough guard to stop in P&R’s plays and I expect D. Lillard to struggle a bit in defending him. SAC offense is lacking the proper ball movement to generate good outside looks, but for today I expect them to focus in attacking the rim.

On the other side, POR offense is the pure definition of a jump shooting team and so, they won’t explore @ max the truly awful SAC interior defense. Also, Batum is now banged up and their rookie guard (C.J. McCollum) will play for the first time this season so, POR can have some chemistry problems for tonight.

I expect the Kings to be super competitive tonight and so, I’m playing SAC+5 as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 524 Sacramento Kings (+5) @  -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA - 513 Phoenix Suns @ 514 Chicago Bulls

Play #5

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 189 @  -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 519 Boston Celtics @ 520 Denver Nuggets

Play #6

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 520 Denver Nuggets (-7.5) @  -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 501 Washington Wizards @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #3

With all their key players healthy, the Wizards are IMO a better team than the Bobcats and I expect them to confirm this on the court tonight.

Going to what it matters; the matchup between these two teams is extremely favorable to the Wizards…

I’ve watched WAS’s last game against the Warriors as I went w/ OVER in that game, and the Wizards offense played really well until the half time. John Wall was aggressive and he created plenty of good looks for his teammates. Obviously, the Wizards couldn’t stop the Warriors as well, but when GSW is “in the zone”, they are really tough to stop offensively.

In the second half, GSW started strong, got some separation just to watch the Wizards missing wide open shot after wide open shot. WAS L3 games went 5-24, 4-12, 6-20 behind the line, but note that they are keep getting “good looks”, they are simply missing those shots.

Tonight they will face a Bobcats defense that is predicated to protect the basket but struggles heavily to defend the perimeter. We are dealing w/ #28 ranked 3pts defense in the league, allowing their opponents to shot 37.7%! In L10 games, CHA is allowing 40.4%, so sooner or later, the Wizards shooters will enjoy a decent game, and tonight they have a favorable matchup to explore.

On the other side, I think the Wizards defense will be able to slow down Kemba Walker, and with Walker not having a good game, the Bobcats really can’t generate enough offense to be competitive. In the last game against the Kings, Walker dominated the game against a soft perimeter defense that couldn’t protect the basket. Well, WAS is ranked #2 in the league defending Pick n Rolls ball handler plays, and this is the play that CHA NEEDS to be efficient. @SAC, CHA had 1.00 PPP 12-23 FG in P&R BH plays and no wonder they were able to score 113 points.

Finally, we are dealing with the Bobcats returning home after a long west coast road trip – physical/mental spot that usually is primed for a letdown.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Washington Wizards (PK) @  -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker