NBA - 505 Golden State Warriors @ 506 Orlando Magic
Plays #3 & 4
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
It's absurd how Golden State struggled so much to beat Cleveland last Sunday. They had a 30/17 A/TO on that game, while Cleveland had just 21/16, besides the fact that the Warriors doubled the number of points in the paint that Cleveland scored: 48-24! The Cavaliers were competitive because they shot 10-16 (62.5%) 3pts, while the Warriors shot just 10-33 3pts.
Orlando is coming from a nice win against Detroit, as that was a good match up for them, as their defense is built to protect well the basket and they are also a good defensive rebounding team. It was easy for them to stop Detroit's offense, as they need to score near the basket to be efficient. Orlando had a clear match up edge against the Pistons and won that game because of this factor. Things will be completely different against Golden State, as the Magic's are just #23 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #25 on pick and roll roll man defense, #25 on spot up defense and #19 on off screens defense! Therefore, I believe the Warriors's offense will pound Orlando, as they are an elite outside shooting team, while showing a great ball movement lately with 27/13, 32/21 and 30/17 A/TO on their last three games! The Warriors have been also playing at a super fast pace lately, with their last six games having pace factors of 102.34, 103.14, 92.24, 95.90, 96.81 and 95.03!
On the other hand, Orlando's offense has been playing well down low with 42, 58 and 46 points in the paint on their last three games, while showing a nice post up game (#7 in the league), with 0.91 PPP for the season, but a nice 1.07 PPP on their last five games! They are also showing a better transition game lately and even though they are inconsistent on long range shooting, Victor Oladipo's removal from the starting line up is helping them on improving this area, as he is struggling on outside shooting this season. Golden State's defense is jump #18 on post up defense and David Lee's poor defense will certainly be exposed by Glen Davis today. I believe the Warriors will have a huge offensive game today, getting an easy win in the process, on a game that promises to be a very high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Golden State Warriors (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Sacramento Kings @ 508 Houston Rockets
Play #5
Houston is coming from a horrible performance at Oklahoma City, where they had just 8 assists and couldn't make a jump shot with just 1-5 FG from 10-15 feet, 0-4 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-28 3pts! They were on a back to back spot and they had no legs to compete against the Thunder. However, what made me worry about Houston was their poor defense, as Oklahoma City shot 9-13 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays for a great 1.53 PPP! This will be a huge concern for the Rockets's defense tonight, as they will face the super quick Isaiah Thomas. Patrick Beverley is still out and with both James Harden and Jeremy Lin still banged up, there are no defensive miracles for them, especially when their back up is Aaron Brooks! Therefore, I expect Sacramento's pick and rolls to be super effective tonight.
Sacramento is coming to this game with a lot of confidence, as they were super competitive against both Miami and San Antonio on their last two games. They were especially impressive on rebounds with 57.8% and 54.9% rebound rates! Of course the Rockets's offense will have an edge over Sacramento, but that edge might not be huge given the considerable amount of key banged up players that Houston has right now. The Kings only lost at San Antonio due to the Spurs's bench being super impressive. This won't happen tonight, as Houston's bench is very unimpressive and they are just playing 14.5 minutes per game! Therefore, I expect the Kings to be competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Sacramento Kings (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Brooklyn Nets @ 510 San Antonio Spurs
Play #6
Given the Nets's horrible perimeter defense, this is a perfect match up for San Antonio's offense to destroy them. Brooklyn actually had a decent showing at Indiana and even though they lost by 91-105, they ran out of energy in the final quarter, as they were on a back to back spot, while Indiana was rested. Brooklyn is now playing with a smaller line up, as they have lost Brook Lopez for the season, and with Andrei Kirilenko back tonight, I believe that he will play at the PF position for a while.
On the other hand, of course Gregg Popovich will also play small tonight against the Nets's small lineups. Anyway, San Antonio's well oiled offense will absolutely crush Brooklyn. Both benches have good scoring punch and if San Antonio has their traditional good bench, Brooklyn's bench is also good with Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko and Shaun Livingston. Therefore, I believe that this will be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 513 Portland Trailblazers @ 514 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #7
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
As much as Portland is a good offensive team, they can't stop preventing their opponents from scoring near the basket. This is why both Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday easily penetrated into the basket last night and scored layups without much trouble with 9-15 FG and 14-28 FG respectively. New Orleans scored 20 fast break points and 68 points in the paint! The only reason why they didn't blowout the Blazers was due to their poor 2-11 3pts! Portland was outplayed the whole game until Monty Williams screwed up and inserted such a terrible lineup together that Portland got back into the scoreboard.
The consequences of last night's game was that Portland made a big effort, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews all playing 40 minutes or close to that. Given the Blazers's poor defense as of late, I believe Oklahoma City's offense will crush them in here, as their defensive rates of 118.42, 119.69, 114.48, 106.76, 114.98 and 119.86 over their last six games doesn't give the team a lot of hope for the near future. On the first game between these two teams this season, Portland won by 111-104, but that was a back to back game for the Thunder, while Portland was in the middle of a home span. Oklahoma City's defense keeps being great even without Russell Westbrook and even though the team's offense is of course worse without him, the ball movement has actually improved as both Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson are good guards. I believe this is a great spot for the Thunder to pick up another big win over a close rival and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 514 Oklahoma City Thunder (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Boston Celtics
Play #1
Since Al Horford got injured, Atlanta's offense started being super perimeter based. On their last game at Orlando, Atlanta had a volume of 24% on pick and roll ball handler plays and 27% on spot ups. However, the Hawks are expected to find some problems today against Boston's decent perimeter defense that is #14 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on spot up defense.
On the other hand, Boston's offense is using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately as well. However, they also keep having a nice post up, as Boston has a quite big backcourt. These are areas where Atlanta's defense is struggling. The aggressiveness of Boston's guards will be a huge problem for Atlanta's backcourt defense, as both Louis Williams and Kyle Korver won't be able to prevent the Celtics's dribble penetrations
With the Hawks being so perimeter oriented and the Celtics having some nice edges on offense for today, I believe Boston will be able to pick up a comfortable win today, as they are also #5 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.8% allowed. Therefore, I'm taking Boston today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Boston Celtics (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Indiana Pacers
Play #2
Indiana is coming from another nice win this time against Brooklyn by 105-91. Their offense has been excellent lately with offense rates of 119.13, 114.21, 105.85 and 116.36 over their last four games. This improvement on offense is due to a better efficiency on post ups, but especially on the outside shooting where they are excellent with 39.2% 3pts over their last 10 games, the #5 best mark in the league. Looking at Cleveland's defensive ratings lately (105.06, 107.34, 124.74, 125.21, 106.08, 113.77, 118.70, 108.12, 109.48 and 103.82 on their last 10 games), it's hard not to imagine Indiana having another huge offensive game today.
The Cavaliers are using a 3-guards lineup with regularity lately and on their last game against the Warriors, they used Kyrie Irving for 40 minutes, Jarrett Jack for 34 minutes and Dion Waiters for 39 minutes. Of course that with such lineup, their defense is struggling. So, the key in here will be to know how the Cavaliers's offense will play against the Pacers's elite defense. Cleveland is now playing faster due to Andrew Bynum being out of the rotation and they have been improving on offense a lot lately, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays, with Kyrie Irving showing his best basketball, while Jarrett Jack is finally waking up after a slow start of the season. Thanks to this, the Cavaliers are always #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.89 PPP! In comparison, the Nets are playing on a similar way as the Cavaliers with small guards and they had 8-15 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays against Indiana last Saturday for a nice 1.04 PPP! Therefore, I expect the Cavaliers to have a similar or even better outcome today on offense.
On the last game between these two teams, Indiana won by 89-74, in a game where George Hill didn't play and Cleveland's offense was still a complete mess. Therefore, that was a game played on the early season where Indiana was winning their games via defense. Things are now different and they are on a 4-games streaks where they have scored 103 points or more. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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