NBA - 507 San Antonio Spurs @ 508 Houston Rockets
Play #1
The Rockets are 2-0 against the Spurs in this season and in both wins, they dominated the Spurs in the first quarter w/ 30-24 & 40-25 outcomes, so we can expect the Spurs to have a clear focus for this contest:
“Acutely aware that Houston scored 30 first-quarter points in a 112-106 win at AT&T Center on Nov. 30 and 40 points in the first quarter of a 111-98 win there on Christmas Day Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wants to see better defensive focus, especially in transition.
“We have to come a little more ready to play, for one thing, have better transition defense, be more aggressive offensively.”
“They scored 30 and 40, respectively, in the first two games in the first quarter,” he said. “Then we were decent, but that’s tough to do. Our defense has to be a lot better to start the game.”
Spurs captain Tim Duncan expanded on Popovich’s sentiment, stressing the importance of defense for 48 minutes.
“Whether it be the first quarter or the last quarter we can’t let them get 30 and 40 points on us (in a quarter). It gets away from us.””
My concern for this contest is related with the (lack of) Spurs perimeter b/c D. Green & K. Leonard are by far their best wing defenders. In those 2 HOU wins, James Harden completely dominated the Spurs w/ 10-19 FG & 8-13 for 31 points and 11-16 FG for 28 points, so most likely I would pass w/ Under just because of this matchup.
Eventually, James Harden was ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so SAS defense can now adjust defensively and won’t be torched by Harden.
SAS offense also will have some problems in this contest because Tim Duncan & Tony Parker will face D. Howard & P. Beverly – both above average defensive players and so, after two high scoring contests in the first h2h games, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game.
“Acutely aware that Houston scored 30 first-quarter points in a 112-106 win at AT&T Center on Nov. 30 and 40 points in the first quarter of a 111-98 win there on Christmas Day Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wants to see better defensive focus, especially in transition.
“We have to come a little more ready to play, for one thing, have better transition defense, be more aggressive offensively.”
“They scored 30 and 40, respectively, in the first two games in the first quarter,” he said. “Then we were decent, but that’s tough to do. Our defense has to be a lot better to start the game.”
Spurs captain Tim Duncan expanded on Popovich’s sentiment, stressing the importance of defense for 48 minutes.
“Whether it be the first quarter or the last quarter we can’t let them get 30 and 40 points on us (in a quarter). It gets away from us.””
My concern for this contest is related with the (lack of) Spurs perimeter b/c D. Green & K. Leonard are by far their best wing defenders. In those 2 HOU wins, James Harden completely dominated the Spurs w/ 10-19 FG & 8-13 for 31 points and 11-16 FG for 28 points, so most likely I would pass w/ Under just because of this matchup.
Eventually, James Harden was ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so SAS defense can now adjust defensively and won’t be torched by Harden.
SAS offense also will have some problems in this contest because Tim Duncan & Tony Parker will face D. Howard & P. Beverly – both above average defensive players and so, after two high scoring contests in the first h2h games, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Detroit Pistons
DET is struggling as of late but for tonight they will have a complete favorable matchup in ORL and so, I expect them to bounce back…
ORL was completely dominated on the boards in their last game vs. NO even though the Pelicans are shorthanded on the frontcourt and so, ORL was dominated in the glass vs. subpar rebounding team. Well, DET is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, in L2 games they had 57.9% & 56.10% reb/rate% and this ultimately will be the X factor of this contest.
It looks like ORL coach will change his starting lineup for tonight by inserting J. Maxiell in the starting lineup. However, ORL will still be undersized down low w/ Davis & Maxiell while Maxiell is completely worthless on the offensive end.
DET is struggling to defend from the perimeter but ORL is struggling to shoot the ball as well – in L10 games they are hitting just 32.0% 3pts% - #27 ranked in the league, so DET’s biggest defensive weakness won’t be explored by ORL IMO.
Play #2
ORL was completely dominated on the boards in their last game vs. NO even though the Pelicans are shorthanded on the frontcourt and so, ORL was dominated in the glass vs. subpar rebounding team. Well, DET is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, in L2 games they had 57.9% & 56.10% reb/rate% and this ultimately will be the X factor of this contest.
It looks like ORL coach will change his starting lineup for tonight by inserting J. Maxiell in the starting lineup. However, ORL will still be undersized down low w/ Davis & Maxiell while Maxiell is completely worthless on the offensive end.
DET is struggling to defend from the perimeter but ORL is struggling to shoot the ball as well – in L10 games they are hitting just 32.0% 3pts% - #27 ranked in the league, so DET’s biggest defensive weakness won’t be explored by ORL IMO.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Detroit Pistons (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Memphis Grizzlies @ 510 Portland Trail Blazers
I expect MEM to be super competitive in this contest and by imposing their style of play, I expect also this contest to be a slow paced game.
MEM is completely dominating the boards, in the L2 games vs. HOU they had 56.5 & 57.31 reb/rate%! Their defense is BACK! In the L10 games they are allowing just 33.3% 3pts% -> #4 best mark in the league while w/ M. Gasol back, their post up defense has been phenomenal and so I expect them to slow down POR potent offense.
On the other side, POR is a poor interior defensive team, they are also ranked just #28 in post up defense and so, we can expect MEM frontline to score some easy points tonight. In both games vs. HOU – a fast paced team like POR, the pace factor was super slow – I expect a similar style in this contest and so, I’m taking the Grizzlies & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays.
Play #3 & #4
MEM is completely dominating the boards, in the L2 games vs. HOU they had 56.5 & 57.31 reb/rate%! Their defense is BACK! In the L10 games they are allowing just 33.3% 3pts% -> #4 best mark in the league while w/ M. Gasol back, their post up defense has been phenomenal and so I expect them to slow down POR potent offense.
On the other side, POR is a poor interior defensive team, they are also ranked just #28 in post up defense and so, we can expect MEM frontline to score some easy points tonight. In both games vs. HOU – a fast paced team like POR, the pace factor was super slow – I expect a similar style in this contest and so, I’m taking the Grizzlies & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Memphis Grizzlies (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 513 Indiana Pacers @ 514 LA Lakers
IND has lost 2 of their last 3 games as they had a tough stretch lately w/ bad schedule. We took advantage of that by fading them in their last game @DEN but for tonight’s contest they had 2 days off to rest and so, w/ them being fired up, I expect them to completely dominate LAL.
The biggest problem of IND defense lately was their inability to defend against quick guards that are super aggressive in attacking the rim: Goran Dragic, I. Thomas and Ty Lawson. Well, that won’t happen tonight because the Lakers don’t have such kind of player – K. Marshall is a “merely” pass-first PG.
The size edge of IND down low will be huge against LAL that has been clearly outrebounded in all L10 games – average reb/rate% = 44.3%!
LAL has been pretty good shooting from the outside w/ 40.7% 3pts in L10 games but they will simply face the best 3pts defensive team in the league by allowing just 33.3% for the season.
W/ IND primed for a bounce back, LAL awful defense will be explored by IND while LAL’s offense is in a tough spot and matchup against IND rested defense.
Play #5
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The biggest problem of IND defense lately was their inability to defend against quick guards that are super aggressive in attacking the rim: Goran Dragic, I. Thomas and Ty Lawson. Well, that won’t happen tonight because the Lakers don’t have such kind of player – K. Marshall is a “merely” pass-first PG.
The size edge of IND down low will be huge against LAL that has been clearly outrebounded in all L10 games – average reb/rate% = 44.3%!
LAL has been pretty good shooting from the outside w/ 40.7% 3pts in L10 games but they will simply face the best 3pts defensive team in the league by allowing just 33.3% for the season.
W/ IND primed for a bounce back, LAL awful defense will be explored by IND while LAL’s offense is in a tough spot and matchup against IND rested defense.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513 Indiana Pacers (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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