NBA Premium Card 01/18

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

*BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK*

I have to admit that the Clippers have been a “nice surprise” since CP3 is OUT w/ a 5-1 record because I didn’t expect such consistency from them, but hold on a second…

They have defeated an ORL team that simply can’t defend near the basket right now; they have defeated the Celtics playing @b2b spot (BOS played in the previous night @DEN); they have defeated a LAL team that is ranked dead last in pts in the paint allowed; they were able to perform a miracle comeback against a DAL team that really don’t have a proper interior defense and finally, last night they have defeated a NYK team that was playing @b2b spot and had an out-of-form Tyson Chandler & Bargnani on the frontcourt!

Despite playing vs. poor NYK’s interior defense, Doc Rivers didn’t have any option than to “give” 40 minutes to Blake Griffin and 43 (!!!) minutes to DeAndre Jordan! So here’s the problem:

LAC is FINALLY going to play against an elite team without CP3 after 5 consecutive “favorable” matchups, and really, you don’t want to play against the Pacers’ formidable frontcourt having your ONLY two frontcourt players playing plus 40 minutes in the previous night…

A similar spot happened when after winning @DAL (in the game CP3 got injured) w/ both Griffin & Jordan playing major minutes, LAC was then completely crushed by the Spurs in the following night.

W/ IND having the edge on the frontcourt, LAC’s starting backcourt unit’s lack of explosiveness (Collison + Reddick + Dudley) will be completely exposed by IND’s backcourt that is playing in a high level especially w/ Paul George & Stevenson and therefore, I expect another “statement game” from the best team in the league against a tired LAC team playing without their best player.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 504 Indiana Pacers (-8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #2

Last night we were able to cash w/ CHA one of my biggest plays of the season as they had a really good spot vs. a tired ORL team and especially, their two best offensive players Kemba Walker & Al Jefferson would have favorable matchups on the offensive end and they really didn’t disappoint me:

Walker vs. a tired, old and slow Jameer Nelson had 7-16 FG, 4-6 FT for 19 points & 10 assists while Big Al completely dominated down low (vs. awful ORL interior defense without Vucevic) w/ 13-17 FG for 30 points & 16 rebounds!

Unfortunately, both players won’t enjoy such edges for tonight’s game vs. MIA: CHA will play their 4th game in 5days, and last night their 3 top offensive players logged major minutes: Walker 43min, Henderson 35min and Big Al 36 min!

CHA is going from facing the #25 ranked ORL P&R ball handler defense last night to facing the best P&R BH defense in the league in MIA! We can expect a natural offensive letdown from them tonight…

However, MIA also doesn’t have exactly a good physical spot as well… D. Wade won’t play, and MIA is going to have some problems to score near the basket vs. good CHA’s rim defense. Both teams play @slow pace, so my potential scenario for this contest = half court game w/ both offenses struggling a bit and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 501 Detroit Pistons @ 502 Washington Wizards

Play #3

There is a serious chemistry problem going on w/ this DET team. Last night they had a great physical spot of 5 days off to rest and prepare the game vs. UTA, and not only they were torched defensively, but especially, their offense was awful w/ 89 points & 96.9 Off. Rtg. against one of the worst defensive teams in the league!

It is pretty obvious that their floor spacing w/ Josh Smith, Monroe & Drummond is atrocious and their opponents are simply packing the paint against them. Sooner or later, coach Cheeks will have to insert Singler in the lineup for Smith or Monroe, but until then…

WAS had a tough but nice win vs. CHI last night, and they are fired up for tonight b/c w/ a win, they finally had a +0.500 record! I really liked the way the Wizards had 6 different players w/ double digits points scored while their ball movement was pretty good w/ 27 assists – unselfish basketball!

WAS defense is a tough matchup for DET b/c they are a decent defensive rebounding team (ranked #12), a decent paint defense (ranked #10) and they are allowing just 59% FG at the rim in L10 games – by being decent in these 3 areas, WAS is going to slow down DET offense.

On the other end, I expect John Wall to create plenty of good outside looking shots for his teammates against the #26 3pts ranked defense in DET. This will be the final h2h game between these two teams and so far, WAS has hit 26-63 3pts -  a nice 41.2% 3pts% mark and I expect this good trend to keep up while WAS will win this contest w/ some ease.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Washington Wizards (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 507 Philadelphia 76ers @ 508 Chicago Bulls

Play #4

CHI is going to face a real tough physical spot for tonight’s contest. They had a brutal triple OT game vs. ORL this last Wednesday in which J. Butler played 60 minutes, Noah 49 minutes or Gibson 43 minutes, and last night they were involved in another close battle @WAS, so this is going to be their 3rd game in 4 nights w/ traveling in every game.

This is not the case w/ PHI as they clearly lost vs. MIA last night in a game that basically was over already in the first half, and so, their coach decided to “rest” his best players for tonight’s game.

PHI offense committed 23 TO’s vs. MIA which wasn’t a surprise for me b/c one of my key factors for my MIA-10 play was their aggressive ball handler pressure defense vs. PHI's offense prone to commit TO’s.

Michael Carter-Williams struggled heavily w/ just 7 points & 5 TO’s against MIA’s defense:

"I think they were changing up the defense a lot," said Carter-Williams, who nearly triple-doubled with nine steals vs. Miami in his season debut. "Last time, they were really hard hedging. This time, they mixed it up. I got confused sometimes. I just have to learn from it, be better prepared and adjust next time."

The good news is that CHI’s defense doesn’t have the same aggressiveness vs. ball handler, and actually I expect MCW to have a decent offensive game vs. Hinrich and Augustin.

PHI has been outgunned by their opponents who are taking advantage of PHI’s fast pace to torch them from the outside & transition, but the Bulls aren’t build to explore such PHI’s weaknesses – they are #3 “worst” fast break offensive team in the league w/ just 9.5 fast break pts per game.

I’m not saying that PHI will win this contest but we are dealing w/ a blowout line and I expect PHI to be competitive in this particular matchup & bad physical spot for CHI.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Philadelphia 76ers (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Milwaukee Bucks @ 510 Houston Rockets

Play #5

Since Larry Sanders returned and is playing consistent minutes, MIL is playing @ super slow pace. Even their 2 games vs. OKC & vs. GSW were typical half court games and so, I don’t expect them to change their approach for tonight’s contest.

They have been one of the best rim defenses in the league as of late w/ just 35 pts paint allowed per game in L8 games, so HOU won’t score that easy down low tonight as Howard will have a tough matchup vs. Sanders. Obviously, MIL defense has been awful in the perimeter but HOU in L10 games is shooting just 31.4% 3pts%!

HOU is going to be fired up after their monumental collapse in the last game vs. OKC. A fired up HOU team isn’t going to have any problems in shutting down MIL’s poor offense.

MIL really can’t score near the basket w/ 57% FG at the rim L10 games and b/c coach Drew is giving more minutes to his young players (who are streaky shooters), MIL is really struggling from the perimeter as well and so I think that we are getting some value w/ Under in this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors @ 512 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #6

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Well, offense wasn’t a problem for GSW in their last 2 games b/c they have scored 116 and 121 points – usually such absurd number of points is good enough to win in the NBA, but that didn’t happen against the run and gun DEN offense while last night’s Kevin Durant really was unstoppable.

For tonight’s contest, I expect GSW to continue their offensive dominance against the awful NO defense that is severely shorthanded right now.

NO defense is allowing their opponents to hit 37.3% 3pts in L10 games & 43.6% in L5 games… their backcourt unit = Roberts + Gordon + Rivers are all terrible individual defensive players so, we can expect Curry &  Thompson to enjoy good offensive games tonight…

The X factor for this contest is related w/ NO offense vs. GSW defense…

NO offense with so many injuries is struggling to have a decent ball movement, they are averaging just 18.7 assists per game in L7 games and so, it is quite easy to defend them – just put Iguodala on Eric Gordon and take extra look on A. Davis and GSW will be fine.

Opponents are constantly underestimating NO and the Pelicans somehow have been competitive but this won’t happen tonight w/ GSW:

"We've got to get (the defense) back," coach Mark Jackson said. "We've got to play with the same edge that we played with before. Right now our team is a little bit too confident for the last two nights. We've got to get it back, but the good news is there's another one tomorrow."

I expect GSW to really defeat the Pelicans by some margin and that’s why I’m taking them as my Double Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 511 Golden State Warriors (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 513 Utah Jazz @ 514 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #7

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Weirdly, MIN tried to defeat the Raptors last night in a pace that favored TOR as the game was by some margin, the SLOWEST paced game of the season for MIN!

As expected, MIN dominated the game down low w/ 56 points in the paint but they struggled (as usual) behind the line w/ 3-18 3pts. However, the biggest problem was the lack of transition points from them – only 4 fast break points for a team that averages +15 FB/pts per game!

The good news is that MIN is going to play @their usual fast tempo style tonight at home vs. UTA.

 It might sound a bit strange, but UTA’s offense right now is one of the best units in the league w/ impressive 115.5 Off. Rtg. in L7 games! They are pushing the ball and playing faster – averaging 14 fast break pts per game during this stretch; they are attacking the rim w/ almost 50 pts in the paint/game and they are coming from a truly impressive win @DET last night…

UTA’s problem has been their defense! Their interior defense is allowing their opponent to hit almost 70 FG at the rim in L0 games so we can expect Kevin Love & Pekovic to once again have monster games. Opponents are also torching the Jazz in transition w/ 18.3 fast break pts per game in L9 games, so after scoring just 4 FB pts last night @TOR, I expect MIN to reach the 20-FB pts tonight…

This is going to be a run and gun game and w/ my fair line = 212/214 points, we have the proper edge for a Top Play w/ Over in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker