Play #1
PHX offense is really clicking right now... not only they torched the best defensive team in the league (IND) at home but their style has been good enough to crush the lowly teams in the league.
Their P&R & Transition offense has been excellent w/ Goran Dragic being the X factor w/ his aggressiveness in attacking the rim & court vision to find the right open teammate.
Well, MIL’s defense is just horrible! They are allowing 22 fast break pts in L6 games, their rim defense actually is quite decent but their perimeter is non-existent and so, PHX has once again a good matchup to perform well on the offense end.
The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense…
MIL has scored 78, 87 e 86 pts in L10 games and they need badly B. Knight, Ilyasova & Henson to be efficient. The problem was that Ilyasova struggled heavily vs. LAC w/ 6-22 FG but for tonight, he & Henson will have favorable matchups vs. undersized PHX frontline and so, finally MIL offense can generate some easy points down low and therefore, I expect this contest to be a high scoring game.
Their P&R & Transition offense has been excellent w/ Goran Dragic being the X factor w/ his aggressiveness in attacking the rim & court vision to find the right open teammate.
Well, MIL’s defense is just horrible! They are allowing 22 fast break pts in L6 games, their rim defense actually is quite decent but their perimeter is non-existent and so, PHX has once again a good matchup to perform well on the offense end.
The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense…
MIL has scored 78, 87 e 86 pts in L10 games and they need badly B. Knight, Ilyasova & Henson to be efficient. The problem was that Ilyasova struggled heavily vs. LAC w/ 6-22 FG but for tonight, he & Henson will have favorable matchups vs. undersized PHX frontline and so, finally MIL offense can generate some easy points down low and therefore, I expect this contest to be a high scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Play #5
My fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game and so we have the proper 3-pts edge for HOU tonight…
Fatigue can be a problem for HOU b/c this is a b2b game for them, however note that HOU is 7-2 ATS on the road in b2b games this season! HOU offense had some big problems in L3 games basically because they couldn’t generate easy points near the basket. Why? Well, they have faced twice MEM (that is dominating the league defensively as of late) and last night, Tim Duncan was just spectacular in his 1*1 defense vs. Howard! What about DAL then?
DAL interior defense simply isn’t near the same level of MEM & SAS. Actually, they have been crushed in the boards L5 games w/ 45.8% reb/rate% and in 3 of their last 6 games they have allowed more than 56 points in the paint! I expect HOU to dominate the boards and Howard to have a monster game!
DAL offense is great on the perimeter but HOU has now Beverly back and so, I expect them to be decent defensively like they were last night @SAS and therefore, I expect them to be extremely competitive!
Fatigue can be a problem for HOU b/c this is a b2b game for them, however note that HOU is 7-2 ATS on the road in b2b games this season! HOU offense had some big problems in L3 games basically because they couldn’t generate easy points near the basket. Why? Well, they have faced twice MEM (that is dominating the league defensively as of late) and last night, Tim Duncan was just spectacular in his 1*1 defense vs. Howard! What about DAL then?
DAL interior defense simply isn’t near the same level of MEM & SAS. Actually, they have been crushed in the boards L5 games w/ 45.8% reb/rate% and in 3 of their last 6 games they have allowed more than 56 points in the paint! I expect HOU to dominate the boards and Howard to have a monster game!
DAL offense is great on the perimeter but HOU has now Beverly back and so, I expect them to be decent defensively like they were last night @SAS and therefore, I expect them to be extremely competitive!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Houston Rockets (+3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 717 Chicago Bulls @ 718 San Antonio Spurs
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
In my opinion, it is just TOO much to ask the Spurs not only to win this contest but basically to dominate the Bulls in such bad physical spot & being so shorthanded.
Without T. Splitter, SAS has been completely dominated in the boards in their last games…L9 games reb/rate% = just 47.1% and of those 9 games they were able to “win the battle” just twice vs. ATL & MIL – both subpar rebounding teams! Tim Duncan made a huge effort last night @HOU in defending D. Howard and what is his reward for tonight? Having to face the Bulls frontcourt!
I didn’t send the play earlier because I wanted to make sure that J. Noah will play tonight and indeed it was confirmed, so I expect CHI to dominate the boards w/ some ease.
Manu Ginobili got injured last night and so, SAS basically has only Othyus Jeffers and Marco Belinelli as the only players whose natural position is the 2/3. Only Tony Parker is able to “create” offense from the perimeter, and not coincidently, SAS has shot just 6-22 & 6-23 3pts in the L2 games!
CHI has been super competitive as of late as their defense is superb while D.J. Augustin has been a serviceable PG for them. They’ve lost vs. MIN at home in their last game but J. Noah didn’t play that game and MIN dominated the paint w/ 46-36 points in the paint edge.
I expect CHI to be super competitive tonight while my fair line for this contest is SAS-1 points and so, we have the proper edge to play CHI+8 as my Triple Dime Play!
Without T. Splitter, SAS has been completely dominated in the boards in their last games…L9 games reb/rate% = just 47.1% and of those 9 games they were able to “win the battle” just twice vs. ATL & MIL – both subpar rebounding teams! Tim Duncan made a huge effort last night @HOU in defending D. Howard and what is his reward for tonight? Having to face the Bulls frontcourt!
I didn’t send the play earlier because I wanted to make sure that J. Noah will play tonight and indeed it was confirmed, so I expect CHI to dominate the boards w/ some ease.
Manu Ginobili got injured last night and so, SAS basically has only Othyus Jeffers and Marco Belinelli as the only players whose natural position is the 2/3. Only Tony Parker is able to “create” offense from the perimeter, and not coincidently, SAS has shot just 6-22 & 6-23 3pts in the L2 games!
CHI has been super competitive as of late as their defense is superb while D.J. Augustin has been a serviceable PG for them. They’ve lost vs. MIN at home in their last game but J. Noah didn’t play that game and MIN dominated the paint w/ 46-36 points in the paint edge.
I expect CHI to be super competitive tonight while my fair line for this contest is SAS-1 points and so, we have the proper edge to play CHI+8 as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 717 Chicago Bulls (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 721 Washington Wizards @ 722 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #7
***Double Dime Play***
I understand that this is a bad physical spot for WAS but actually, I think that they will be a tough matchup for a Clippers team that will play at home since a long time and so, this is not going to be a easy spot for them as well.
Without CP3, LAC has been great offensive especially on P&R Ball Handler plays w/ D. Collison & Jamal Crawford but WAS defense is ranked #2 in this department (behind only MIA), and they are coming from a win @GSW in which they held GSW to just 2-13 FG 0.35 PPP in P&R ball handler plays!
Obviously, LAC will have some edge on the frontcourt as Jordan & Griffin are way more physical than Gortat and Nene but still, w/ LAC shooters being well covered, I expect LAC offense to have some “unexpected” problems tonight.
WAS offense has been streaky but IMO, the X factor of this contest will be related w/ matchup between John Wall and D. Collison. Wall is playing @all star level and his all around performance last night vs. S. Curry says it all and I expect Wall to dominate Collison in both ends of the floor. In the first h2h of the season, LAC completely crushed the Wizards @WAS, but Note that a Mr. CP3 played that game and ended w/ the following stats line: 11-14 FG, 5-7 3pts, 11-11 FT for 38 pts, 12 assists and 3 steals – AMAZING! Also, Nene Hilario didn’t play that game and basically, every time the Wizards play without Nene, they don’t have a chance of being competitive.
I expect a fired up WAS team for tonight looking forward to reach +0.50 record and being a super tough matchup for LAC as I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat LAC SU!
Without CP3, LAC has been great offensive especially on P&R Ball Handler plays w/ D. Collison & Jamal Crawford but WAS defense is ranked #2 in this department (behind only MIA), and they are coming from a win @GSW in which they held GSW to just 2-13 FG 0.35 PPP in P&R ball handler plays!
Obviously, LAC will have some edge on the frontcourt as Jordan & Griffin are way more physical than Gortat and Nene but still, w/ LAC shooters being well covered, I expect LAC offense to have some “unexpected” problems tonight.
WAS offense has been streaky but IMO, the X factor of this contest will be related w/ matchup between John Wall and D. Collison. Wall is playing @all star level and his all around performance last night vs. S. Curry says it all and I expect Wall to dominate Collison in both ends of the floor. In the first h2h of the season, LAC completely crushed the Wizards @WAS, but Note that a Mr. CP3 played that game and ended w/ the following stats line: 11-14 FG, 5-7 3pts, 11-11 FT for 38 pts, 12 assists and 3 steals – AMAZING! Also, Nene Hilario didn’t play that game and basically, every time the Wizards play without Nene, they don’t have a chance of being competitive.
I expect a fired up WAS team for tonight looking forward to reach +0.50 record and being a super tough matchup for LAC as I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat LAC SU!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721 Washington Wizards (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Miami Heat
Play #2
Well, on the paper this matchup automatically “screams” for a high scoring contest because MIA in L5 games has a great 118.4 Off. Rtg to show, and OKC have even better Off. Rtg numbers w/ 119.9! However, the matchups and the projected pace of the game will eventually turn this contest into a relatively low scoring game.
MIA’s biggest problem so far in the season has been their defense. Note that they are still an elite defensive unit vs. ball handler by being ranked #1 in P&R ball handler defense & #1 in the league in creating TO’s! However, their wing players are old and slow, and defensively MIA has some problems in rotating and covering the weak side of the ball.
The good news for them is that OKC’s offense basically has been Kevin Durant…Kevin Durant and some more Kevin Durant! Despite their awesome offensive numbers in L5 games, OKC has averaged just 21.6 assists per game so, without making “extra passes”, MIA defense can focus on the strong side and put all the focus in Kevin Durant.
MIA offense has been great indeed but just note for their opponents as of late: PHI, CHA, ATL, BOS, LAL and SAS (shorthanded)… OKC defense is in a complete another level – they are allowing just 31.7% 3pts% in L10 games (#4 best mark in the league) so I expect OKC to be solid defensively. Note also that OKC has faced some poor defenses as well as of late: SAC, POR, SAS (Leonard got injured early on the game), BOS, PHI & ATL.
With both offenses being a bit overrated for this contest due to their “easy schedule” as of late, I expect both defenses to be the real highlight of this contest.
MIA’s biggest problem so far in the season has been their defense. Note that they are still an elite defensive unit vs. ball handler by being ranked #1 in P&R ball handler defense & #1 in the league in creating TO’s! However, their wing players are old and slow, and defensively MIA has some problems in rotating and covering the weak side of the ball.
The good news for them is that OKC’s offense basically has been Kevin Durant…Kevin Durant and some more Kevin Durant! Despite their awesome offensive numbers in L5 games, OKC has averaged just 21.6 assists per game so, without making “extra passes”, MIA defense can focus on the strong side and put all the focus in Kevin Durant.
MIA offense has been great indeed but just note for their opponents as of late: PHI, CHA, ATL, BOS, LAL and SAS (shorthanded)… OKC defense is in a complete another level – they are allowing just 31.7% 3pts% in L10 games (#4 best mark in the league) so I expect OKC to be solid defensively. Note also that OKC has faced some poor defenses as well as of late: SAC, POR, SAS (Leonard got injured early on the game), BOS, PHI & ATL.
With both offenses being a bit overrated for this contest due to their “easy schedule” as of late, I expect both defenses to be the real highlight of this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 705 Philadelphia 76ers @ 706 Boston Celtics
Play #3
My play w/ PHI+5 last Monday against the Suns really didn’t have a chance once the game started, as PHX offense was just too much for PHI. However, note that offensively, PHI was able to explore PHX’s undersized frontcourt and scored 56 points while they were effective on transition w/ 19 fast break points & 9-15 FG 1.23 PPP.
Their problem obviously was on the defensive end because PHX’s guards Dragic + Green simply couldn’t miss a shot: 9-13 FG & 10-12 FG w/ combining 7-9 3pts and PHX as a team = 9-20 3pts for 45% mark.
The good news for today is that PHI will face a Celtics team that is struggling to hit outside shots right now. Against the awful perimeter D of NYK last night, BOS went just 6-22 3pts and actually, they are shooting just 27.6% 3pts in L10 games (ranked dead last in the league), so PHI’s defense won’t be crushed in the same way they were vs. PHX.
BOS defense has been getting worst as the season progresses… they are allowing 45 points in the paint in L5 games & 65% FG at the rim. Something quite normal if we just look for their starting lineup @NYK last night: Rondo, Green, Wallace, Bass and Sullinger – no interior defense and so, PHI’s offense will be able to attack the rim and generate some easy points.
Rondo is OUT for tonight and BOS is really shorthanded on the wings & this is a back to back game! I expect this contest to be a tight game and therefore, we have some value w/ PHI+4 in my opinion.
Their problem obviously was on the defensive end because PHX’s guards Dragic + Green simply couldn’t miss a shot: 9-13 FG & 10-12 FG w/ combining 7-9 3pts and PHX as a team = 9-20 3pts for 45% mark.
The good news for today is that PHI will face a Celtics team that is struggling to hit outside shots right now. Against the awful perimeter D of NYK last night, BOS went just 6-22 3pts and actually, they are shooting just 27.6% 3pts in L10 games (ranked dead last in the league), so PHI’s defense won’t be crushed in the same way they were vs. PHX.
BOS defense has been getting worst as the season progresses… they are allowing 45 points in the paint in L5 games & 65% FG at the rim. Something quite normal if we just look for their starting lineup @NYK last night: Rondo, Green, Wallace, Bass and Sullinger – no interior defense and so, PHI’s offense will be able to attack the rim and generate some easy points.
Rondo is OUT for tonight and BOS is really shorthanded on the wings & this is a back to back game! I expect this contest to be a tight game and therefore, we have some value w/ PHI+4 in my opinion.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 New Orleans Pelicans @ 710 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #4
This is a big potential letdown spot for NO that is shorthanded for quite some time. Besides their game vs. ORL, NO has been outrebounded in 4 of their L5 games. The potential fatigue & facing one of the best rebounding teams in the league in MIN = letdown!
I understand that Pekovic is OUT for tonight but still MIN has Kevin Love in the frontcourt and so, A. Davis won’t dominate the game like he did last night @CLE sans A. Varejao! MIN backcourt has been playing well as of late…they are pushing the ball nicely by averaging 20 fast break points per game in L5 games. MIN having a big physical edge will push the pace vs. tired NO and this Pelicans defense isn’t good enough to hang around in this spot.
I understand that Pekovic is OUT for tonight but still MIN has Kevin Love in the frontcourt and so, A. Davis won’t dominate the game like he did last night @CLE sans A. Varejao! MIN backcourt has been playing well as of late…they are pushing the ball nicely by averaging 20 fast break points per game in L5 games. MIN having a big physical edge will push the pace vs. tired NO and this Pelicans defense isn’t good enough to hang around in this spot.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Minnesota Timberwolves (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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