NBA Premium Card 01/05

NBA - 803 Golden State Warriors @ 804 Washington Wizards

Play #4

The Washington Wizards have been one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the league but in L2 games they shot just 5-24 & 4-12 3pts. The 5-24 performance against the Mavericks I can understand because it was the first game of the new year @early start, so the Wizards were not “ready” to be sharp offensively. However, in the last game vs. TOR they didn’t have any excuse and their head coach didn’t like it at all:

"More selfish play than we've had. We can't play that way. We've proven over the last couple years we can't play that way," Wittman said. "Getting concerned with, `Why am I coming out? How many minutes am I getting? How many shots am I getting?' Rather than: `What is the team doing?' ... We're not good enough to do it that way."

I expect the Wizards to bounce back today by being more aggressive. They didn’t have it vs. TOR as the game was super slow, WAS had only 17 FT’s so their approach for today is relatively easier to predict.

Meanwhile, GSW performed a monumental comeback against ATL in the last game and their winning streak is alive. They are playing @tremendous fast pace, they are rebounding well as well. @ATL they had 22 fast break points, a nice mark of 44 points in the paint but they couldn’t knock down 3pts – just 6-27 3pts!

With these two teams “rested”, I expect both of them to bounce back offensively via their 3-pts shooting. GSW will push the pace as usual while WAS will be more aggressive and therefore, I think that we have some value w/ OVER in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 813 Denver Nuggets @ 814 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #1 & #5

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

After losing 8-straight games, I was curious to see the Nuggets last game against the Grizzlies and I was surprised of how well they responded.

It all started w/ Ty Lawson and finally, Lawson had a good game after plenty of subpar games. He was aggressive since the start and when this happens, DEN offense is playing at their best. He ended the game w/ 6-12 FG, 5-6 FT, 18 pts & 12 assists while B. Shaw finally trusted on guard E. Fournier and the French player was awesome coming off the bench. DEN was able to outrebound the Grizzlies and this is an extraordinary feat b/c MEM is a beat on the boards lately. DEN had 27 assists – tied their best mark of the season and with such good ball movement, they were able to knock down some three pointers as well (9-22 3pts).

Still, MEM was better in the second half w/ ZBO absolutely dominating down low but the Nuggets responded pretty well and won the game.

For tonight’s contest, I expect the Nuggets to be aggressive once again from the start and IMO they will just crush the Lakers playing in up and down style. LAL is coming from a nice win vs. UTA that was playing in b2b games and is a terrible perimeter defensive team. UTA’s starting lineup is far from being an “athletic unit” and they couldn’t punish LAL down low, something that the Nuggets will do with some ease.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 813 Denver Nuggets (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

ADDED PLAY:

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 203 @ -115 / 1.87 on Boovada

NBA - 801 Memphis Grizzlies @ 802 Detroit Pistons

Play #2

We have here two teams that have the same virtues and weaknesses and the matchup will favor both defenses.

Both the Grizzlies and the Pistons are bad outside shooting teams, in L3 games MEM has shot 8-31 3pts for just 25.8% while DET don’t have better numbers: 18-59 3pts for just 30.5%! They focus their offensive game through the post using their impressive frontline units. MEM is dominating the board’s battle lately while ZBO is playing stellar basketball but DET has the #4 post up defense in the league and it won’t be easy for MEM to dominate down low. The same thing can be said about the Pistons and so, there won’t be much floor spacing for both teams as both will pack the paint and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 807 Toronto Raptors @ 808 Miami Heat

Play #3

MIA didn't have any problems to dominate the Magic last night that was playing without their best big player Nikola Vucevic. MIA shot 20-30 FG at the rim (67% FG), something that I wasn’t expecting because ORL has a good interior defense. However, I don’t think that the Raptors will be such easy opponent for Heat tonight…

TOR is playing their best basketball of the season. Offensively, they are sharing the ball and creating good looks everywhere. The once ISO-ball offense has now produced 27 and 29 assists L2 games, prior to these 2 games, TOR had only one game w/ +25assists in 29 games!

However, it is on the defensive end that TOR has emerged as an elite defensive team! L5 games they have Def. rates = 94.7 and their rim defense has been exceptional w/ just 38 points in the paint allowed per game L5 games. Valanciunas has finally getting some consistent minutes and this rested Raptors team will be a tough matchup for the Heat that is in a letdown b2b spot.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807 Toronto Raptors (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker