NBA Premium Card 01/16

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Houston Rockets

Play #2

It has been for some reason extremely difficult to predict “letdown” spots this season in the NBA, but eventually we will cash in some of them, and this contest has the perfect matchup & spot for a relatively low scoring game.

HOU didn’t take the Pelicans’ serious last night, and the consequences might hurt them for tonight because Harden played 41min, Lin 39min, Parsons 45 min, Jones 41 min and only Howard logged 30 minutes because he was involved in foul trouble most of the game. For a team that plays in fast tempo system, fatigue can be a problem especially for a HOU offense that is struggling to hit 3pts.

OKC’s defense with our without Westbrook has been phenomenal, and they matchup pretty well vs. HOU because Perkins is useful to frustrate Howard, while Sefolosha is a tough matchup for James Harden. No wonder Howard was held to 4-13 FG & Harden 2-9 FG in the first h2h of the season between these two teams.

Unfortunately, Westbrook’s absence is especially noticed on the offensive end. OKC’s A/TO ratios have been poor: in the last game vs. MEM, they had only 12 assists vs. 19 TO’s! Kevin Durant has been shooting too much, and while he is still effective, his teammates aren’t involved that much and so, OKC’s offense = predictable and stagnant.

HOU’s defense has been inconsistent as of late, but I expect them to be focused in this big game for them, and therefore I think that we are dealing w/ Overrated totals line IMO.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 208 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

IND is 19-1 SU at home this season and they are winning their home games by an average of 15.2 points per game! This is a primetime contest against a hated rival and they are super fresh w/ tonight’s game being only their second game in L6 days… we can expect them to be motivated and fired up for tonight and so, good luck Knicks!

NYK is indeed playing well as of late… their defense has improved a bit while they are shooting better from long range. The problem is that IND has the best perimeter defense in the league! IND is allowing just 31.3% 3pts% in L10 games and with Melo playing as Small Forward, we can expect Paul George to be his matchup while IND will completely shutdown everyone else. NYK was more competitive in the playoffs vs. IND when they played @small ball but their lineup lately is featuring Melo @SF w/ Bargnani + Chandler/Martin in the frontcourt.

IND offense is streaky but they are confident right now after a terrific display in their last game vs. SAC. Chandler isn’t 100% healthy so, I expect Roy Hibbert to have a nice edge down low. Note that Al Jefferson completely owned the Knicks in the Knicks’ last game vs. CHA: 14-20 FG, 7-8 FG for 35 points.

IND defense will dominate the game (as usual) while offensively, I expect them to control the paint and score some easy points down low for a blowout win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Indiana Pacers (-9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker