NBA - 507 Atlanta Hawks @ 508 Chicago Bulls
Play #7
On the other side, ATL is almost exclusively a jump shooting team that is playing faster without Al Horford. CHI transition defense has been poor all season long - ranked #23, so I expect ATL to score some transition points while their 3pts shooting ability will create some damage. CHI is coming from 3 straight good perimeter defensive performances but they have faced MEM, TOR and BOS, all poor shooting teams compared to the Hawks.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 513 Milwaukee Bucks @ 514 Phoenix Suns
Play #8
Yes, I think the Bucks are getting some value for this contest and therefore I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!
Without Bledsoe, PHX offense is not the same because they need him to score in transition b/c PHX half court offense is subpar at best! They have been a terrible defensive rebounding team (ranked #28) and the Suns are 29th in the league in assists per game (19.0) and last in the league in assists per field goal made at .497.
Well, the Bucks transition defense has improved dramatically as of late w/ just 10.3 fast break pts allowed per game L10 games and B. Knight will be a tough defensive matchup for Goran Dragic!
MIL offense has struggled to shoot from the outside, but their inside game has been playing better now that Ilysasova and Sanders are back. I expect both players to dominate the glass tonight against the soft PHX frontcourt and suddenly we have a potential ball game w/ the Bucks being an unexpected competitive team.
Without Bledsoe, PHX offense is not the same because they need him to score in transition b/c PHX half court offense is subpar at best! They have been a terrible defensive rebounding team (ranked #28) and the Suns are 29th in the league in assists per game (19.0) and last in the league in assists per field goal made at .497.
Well, the Bucks transition defense has improved dramatically as of late w/ just 10.3 fast break pts allowed per game L10 games and B. Knight will be a tough defensive matchup for Goran Dragic!
MIL offense has struggled to shoot from the outside, but their inside game has been playing better now that Ilysasova and Sanders are back. I expect both players to dominate the glass tonight against the soft PHX frontcourt and suddenly we have a potential ball game w/ the Bucks being an unexpected competitive team.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Milwaukee Bucks (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 517 Charlotte Bobcats @ 518 Sacramento Kings
Play #9
Play #9
Here's what Steve Clifford had to say after the game (@POR):
"I think we're thinking about the wrong thing.
Our effort defensively has been going down and down, and we've gone from being, to me, an exceptional multiple effort team going from one play to the next to the next, where now we want to make one effort: Get the ball and go.
Our team, to me, is thinking too much about offense. And we have individual guys who need to build their games around their defense, and they're worried about their offense. We're not built that way. We're not going to be outscoring people. If we're not going to commit to defensive rebounding, then we're limited in how good we can be.
We have guys - and they know it - who were playing excellent defense the first 25 games of the year. And their defensive effort isn't even close to where it needs to be."
I expect the Bobcats to bounce back tonight b/c SAC offense won’t be able to generate the same amount of good looks that LAC & POR did vs. CHA. In fact, SAC offensive flow has been getting worst – just 18.5 assists per game L6 games and against the awful PHI defense in a run and gun contest, the Kings had only 14 assists!
CHA good interior defense will limit D. Cousins down low while the Kings perimeter offense will struggle a bit.
I expect Kemba Walker to enjoy a good offensive game in a pretty favorable matchup vs. Isaiah Thomas. In the first h2h, Walker was the MVP of the game w/ 7-13 FG, 4-8 3pts, 6-7 FT & 5 assists! CHA can’t shoot from the outside, but for tonight they only need to be focused in attacking the rim against the worst interior defense of the league.
IMO the Bobcats will be pretty competitive and SAC should be favored by just one ball possession and so, I’m taking the Bobcats as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Charlotte Bobcats (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
The Pelicans were able to defeat the Celtics last night and I’ve cashed w/ the Under 200 for an easy winner. The game was a slow paced affair which helped us a lot because the Pelicans defense still struggled in 2 key areas in which I was hoping for some improvement: they allowed the Celtics to grab 22 offensive boards and they allowed 28 FT’s as well. Luckily, the Celtics couldn’t make a three pointer to save their life so NO was able to win.
For tonight, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith are OUT (both are listed @doubtful) and so, NO will be vastly undersized vs. powerful IND’s frontline. Without Ryan Anderson, the Pelicans don’t have any real outside shooting threat (they attempted only 6 3pts last night) and so, they will be a bit one-dimensional w/ the goal of attacking the rim. That won’t work against the best interior defensive team in the league!
The Pacers are coming from a loss @TOR so we are dealing w/ a bounce back spot for them (they are 5-0 ATS after losing one game). Like I’ve said last night, NO need their P&R and transition game to be effective and while the Celtics are ranked #11 defending both type of plays, the Pacers are ranked #2 and #4!
I expect this contest to be a classic blowout win for the Pacers and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
My fair line for this contest is 195/196 points with the assumption that both D. Wade and Vucevic will play…
MIA’s defense has been inconsistent as of late, their biggest problem has been defending the perimeter and GSW just torched them in the last game by shooting 15-29 3pts. Prior to that, there are some examples of such "lazy" MIA perimeter defense: ATL went 17-34, LAL 14-36 or POR 11-26. The good news is that the Magic isn’t a good outside shooting team, in L10 games they are shooting only 34.1% 3pts (ranked #22 in the league), so I expect the Heat to be decent defensively tonight especially w/ Vucevic banged up.
ORL defense has been great in protecting the rim, so I don’t think the Heat will score “easy points” down low. ORL’s defensive problem, like the Heat, has been defending the perimeter and obviously, MIA is a great jump shooting team. However, they are a bit banged up on the wings tonight w/ Wade & Battier banged up, and I expect ORL to be decent as well on the defensive end.
In the last 2 games, OKC showed some problems in moving the ball w/ just 15 and 20 assists and please note that both POR & BKN aren’t exactly good defensive teams (they are ranked #23 & #28).
On the defensive end, OKC has been great in protecting the rim. Even without Westbrook, OKC has allowed only 26, 46, 28 and 24 pts paint! Their biggest problem has been defending the perimeter, but for tonight’s game, the primary focus will be stopping Kevin Love and Pekovic, and OKC are equipped for the task.
MIN is coming from a nice win vs. NO in an excellent offensive performance in a pretty favorable matchup for them: NO committed 18 TO’s, allowed MIN to grab 10 offensive rebounds and sent MIN 35x to the FT line. Ryan Anderson & Davis were completely overpowered by Love & Pekovic, but that won’t happen tonight against OKC frontcourt unit. OKC is a good defensive rebounding team and one of the best in not committing fouls so MIN offense won’t have the luxury to generate easy points down low and/or via FT line.
Obviously, MIN defense isn’t a great unit but OKC offense is struggling right now without Westbrook, their ball movement is a bit stagnant but we are dealing with a totals line like if Westbrook was healthy, the last h2h between these two teams had exactly this same 208 totals points so, I think that we are getting some value w/ the Under in this contest.
The Clippers won last night @DAL despite playing the last 18 minutes without Chris Paul! They were able to score 30 points in the last quarter due to their domination down low w/ Griffin and DeAndre Jordan that combined to score 16 points while LAC as a team had 10 free throws.
As expected, DAL couldn’t sustain the pace of the game and their interior defense was overpowered: LAC had 53.3% reb/rate; scored 54 points in the paint while shooting 21-27 FG at the rim - for a great 79% FG clip!
Basically all the stuff that I predicted for our Triple Dime Play happened except the HUGE fact that CP3 got injured in the 3rd quarter and still LAC won the game.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, we have now almost the opposite spot working against them, and I expect a major letdown, especially on the offensive end.
Note that last night, Doc Rivers used only 8 players in the rotation. Their 2 froncourt players Griffin & Jordan played 41 minutes so we are dealing with a potential physical letdown.
Last night, LAC played 18 minutes without CP3 and despite scoring “well” without him, LAC had just 2 assists in those 18 minutes! They were able to pound DAL down low + FT’s but DAL defense is really awful in this department:
#24 pts paint allowed w/ 44.1
#28 in Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Game w/ 25.9
#26 Defensive Rebounding w/ 72.7%
Well, SAS defense is almost exactly the opposite: their interior defense is elite w/ Duncan & Splitter on the court, they are #2 in the league in avoiding sending their opponents to the FT line and also, they are #5 defensive rebounding, so the Clippers only offensive end of last night’s game simply won’t happen tonight.
SAS defense has been inconsistent as of late due to some bad perimeter play: they lost vs. NYK b/c they allowed the Knicks to hit 9-17 3pts, in the previous loss, they allowed HOU to shot 12-24 3pts but LAC offense without CP3 will struggle to generate good looks from the outside.
SAS is coming from 4 straight great offensive games but note that they played DAL #21, SAC #29, BKN #28 & NYK #27 ranked defensive teams, the Clippers defense are in another level (ranked #8), so while I expect LAC offense to struggle, I think that their defense will be quite decent, and therefore I’m taking the Spurs as my Single Dime Play and the Under as my Triple Dime Play!
They are focused in attacking the rim and pushing the pace to score in transition: L7 games they averaged 17.9 fast break points per game & 54.6 points in the paint.
The good news for them tonight is that the Blazers have the worst paint defense in the league allowing 48.9 points in the paint per game. Also, POR transition defense lately has been subpar by allowing 16, 17, 20, 13 and 19 fast break points in L5 games, so in a run and gun game, I expect PHI offense to keep rolling…
We can say the same thing for the Blazers offense that is coming from a 134-points explosion in their last game vs. CHA. PHI defense is awful all around but especially on the perimeter. Luckily for them, in L2 games they allowed only 5-25 & 7-23 3pts but note that they have faced DEN & SAC that are ranked #19 & #23 in 3pts shooting…the Blazers are just the best team in the league from behind the line and they are coming from a 21-33 3pts performance!
In the first h2h, the Blazers just torched PHI bad perimeter defense w/ 21-37 3pts while scoring 139 points! PHI was able to score well in the first half before fading away in the 2nd half (they scored 41 points) but note that they were playing @b2b nights and MCW was OUT due to an injury!
My fair line for this contest is 226/228 points so despite this “high” totals line, I really think we have some edge w/ the Over!
NBA - 503 New Orleans Pelicans @ 504 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
Play #1
For tonight, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith are OUT (both are listed @doubtful) and so, NO will be vastly undersized vs. powerful IND’s frontline. Without Ryan Anderson, the Pelicans don’t have any real outside shooting threat (they attempted only 6 3pts last night) and so, they will be a bit one-dimensional w/ the goal of attacking the rim. That won’t work against the best interior defensive team in the league!
The Pacers are coming from a loss @TOR so we are dealing w/ a bounce back spot for them (they are 5-0 ATS after losing one game). Like I’ve said last night, NO need their P&R and transition game to be effective and while the Celtics are ranked #11 defending both type of plays, the Pacers are ranked #2 and #4!
I expect this contest to be a classic blowout win for the Pacers and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Indiana Pacers (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Orlando Magic
Play #2
Play #2
MIA’s defense has been inconsistent as of late, their biggest problem has been defending the perimeter and GSW just torched them in the last game by shooting 15-29 3pts. Prior to that, there are some examples of such "lazy" MIA perimeter defense: ATL went 17-34, LAL 14-36 or POR 11-26. The good news is that the Magic isn’t a good outside shooting team, in L10 games they are shooting only 34.1% 3pts (ranked #22 in the league), so I expect the Heat to be decent defensively tonight especially w/ Vucevic banged up.
ORL defense has been great in protecting the rim, so I don’t think the Heat will score “easy points” down low. ORL’s defensive problem, like the Heat, has been defending the perimeter and obviously, MIA is a great jump shooting team. However, they are a bit banged up on the wings tonight w/ Wade & Battier banged up, and I expect ORL to be decent as well on the defensive end.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 200.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 509 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 510 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #3
Play #3
On the defensive end, OKC has been great in protecting the rim. Even without Westbrook, OKC has allowed only 26, 46, 28 and 24 pts paint! Their biggest problem has been defending the perimeter, but for tonight’s game, the primary focus will be stopping Kevin Love and Pekovic, and OKC are equipped for the task.
MIN is coming from a nice win vs. NO in an excellent offensive performance in a pretty favorable matchup for them: NO committed 18 TO’s, allowed MIN to grab 10 offensive rebounds and sent MIN 35x to the FT line. Ryan Anderson & Davis were completely overpowered by Love & Pekovic, but that won’t happen tonight against OKC frontcourt unit. OKC is a good defensive rebounding team and one of the best in not committing fouls so MIN offense won’t have the luxury to generate easy points down low and/or via FT line.
Obviously, MIN defense isn’t a great unit but OKC offense is struggling right now without Westbrook, their ball movement is a bit stagnant but we are dealing with a totals line like if Westbrook was healthy, the last h2h between these two teams had exactly this same 208 totals points so, I think that we are getting some value w/ the Under in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 511 Los Angeles Clippers @ 512 San Antonio Spurs
Play #4 & 5
Play #4 & 5
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
As expected, DAL couldn’t sustain the pace of the game and their interior defense was overpowered: LAC had 53.3% reb/rate; scored 54 points in the paint while shooting 21-27 FG at the rim - for a great 79% FG clip!
Basically all the stuff that I predicted for our Triple Dime Play happened except the HUGE fact that CP3 got injured in the 3rd quarter and still LAC won the game.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, we have now almost the opposite spot working against them, and I expect a major letdown, especially on the offensive end.
Note that last night, Doc Rivers used only 8 players in the rotation. Their 2 froncourt players Griffin & Jordan played 41 minutes so we are dealing with a potential physical letdown.
Last night, LAC played 18 minutes without CP3 and despite scoring “well” without him, LAC had just 2 assists in those 18 minutes! They were able to pound DAL down low + FT’s but DAL defense is really awful in this department:
#24 pts paint allowed w/ 44.1
#28 in Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Game w/ 25.9
#26 Defensive Rebounding w/ 72.7%
Well, SAS defense is almost exactly the opposite: their interior defense is elite w/ Duncan & Splitter on the court, they are #2 in the league in avoiding sending their opponents to the FT line and also, they are #5 defensive rebounding, so the Clippers only offensive end of last night’s game simply won’t happen tonight.
SAS defense has been inconsistent as of late due to some bad perimeter play: they lost vs. NYK b/c they allowed the Knicks to hit 9-17 3pts, in the previous loss, they allowed HOU to shot 12-24 3pts but LAC offense without CP3 will struggle to generate good looks from the outside.
SAS is coming from 4 straight great offensive games but note that they played DAL #21, SAC #29, BKN #28 & NYK #27 ranked defensive teams, the Clippers defense are in another level (ranked #8), so while I expect LAC offense to struggle, I think that their defense will be quite decent, and therefore I’m taking the Spurs as my Single Dime Play and the Under as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 San Antonio Spurs (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 515 Philadelphia 76ers @ 516 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #6
Play #6
PHI has been healthy lately and their aggressive offensive style has been pretty efficient in the L3 games as they have scored 111, 114 and 113 points. I went w/ OVER in their last game @SAC and despite losing the play, the 76ers did their part by scoring 113 points and posting almost 115 Off. Rtg.
They are focused in attacking the rim and pushing the pace to score in transition: L7 games they averaged 17.9 fast break points per game & 54.6 points in the paint.
The good news for them tonight is that the Blazers have the worst paint defense in the league allowing 48.9 points in the paint per game. Also, POR transition defense lately has been subpar by allowing 16, 17, 20, 13 and 19 fast break points in L5 games, so in a run and gun game, I expect PHI offense to keep rolling…
We can say the same thing for the Blazers offense that is coming from a 134-points explosion in their last game vs. CHA. PHI defense is awful all around but especially on the perimeter. Luckily for them, in L2 games they allowed only 5-25 & 7-23 3pts but note that they have faced DEN & SAC that are ranked #19 & #23 in 3pts shooting…the Blazers are just the best team in the league from behind the line and they are coming from a 21-33 3pts performance!
In the first h2h, the Blazers just torched PHI bad perimeter defense w/ 21-37 3pts while scoring 139 points! PHI was able to score well in the first half before fading away in the 2nd half (they scored 41 points) but note that they were playing @b2b nights and MCW was OUT due to an injury!
My fair line for this contest is 226/228 points so despite this “high” totals line, I really think we have some edge w/ the Over!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 223.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment