NBA - 509 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 510 Utah Jazz
Play #4
However, w/ D. Favors banged up, the Wolves have really a tremendous edge down low vs. UTA! UTA defense is dead last in defending Post up plays by allowing 1.02 PPP and it wasn’t a surprise that MIN went 9-17 FG for 1.05 PPP w/ Pekovic going 12-17 FG! Such huge edge won’t disappear tonight because Favors is banged up while Marvin Williams simply isn’t capable of defending Kevin Love down low.
I don’t expect UTA to shoot just 28.8% FG, but MIN also won’t hit just 20-34 from the free throw line and so, I’m taking the Wolves to cover the spread tonight as my Single Dime Play!
NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #2
In this road trip, SAC offense had one good offensive game vs. 3 subpar performances. It is pretty easy for me to explain those 3 bad offensive games @IND, @MEM & @OKC…
We are talking about 3 elite interior defensive teams! Points in the paint per game allowed rankings:
IND #1 w/ 34.5
MEM #7 w/ 39.3
OKC #5 w/ 38.7
Still, SAC was able to score 56, 40 and 54 points in the paint in those games but they weren’t efficient at the rim! Things will change tonight against a Pelicans’ team that is allowing 67% at the rim L10 games & 70% FG in L5 games! Cousins had to hang around vs. Hibbert, Marc Gasol & K. Perkins but tonight, he will face G. Stiemsma & J. Withey…enough said!
NO is coming from a nice win @MEM last night despite having all their starters w/ negative +/- team points. They defeated the Kings in the first h2h @SAC w/ Jrue Holiday being the “MVP” of the game w/ 7-13 FG, 17 pts, 5 rebounds & 10 assists. For tonight, I expect I. Thomas to completely dominate NO’s guards and therefore, w/ SAC having the edge @ Center & Point guard position, I’m taking the Kings tonight as my Single Dime Play!
We are talking about 3 elite interior defensive teams! Points in the paint per game allowed rankings:
IND #1 w/ 34.5
MEM #7 w/ 39.3
OKC #5 w/ 38.7
Still, SAC was able to score 56, 40 and 54 points in the paint in those games but they weren’t efficient at the rim! Things will change tonight against a Pelicans’ team that is allowing 67% at the rim L10 games & 70% FG in L5 games! Cousins had to hang around vs. Hibbert, Marc Gasol & K. Perkins but tonight, he will face G. Stiemsma & J. Withey…enough said!
NO is coming from a nice win @MEM last night despite having all their starters w/ negative +/- team points. They defeated the Kings in the first h2h @SAC w/ Jrue Holiday being the “MVP” of the game w/ 7-13 FG, 17 pts, 5 rebounds & 10 assists. For tonight, I expect I. Thomas to completely dominate NO’s guards and therefore, w/ SAC having the edge @ Center & Point guard position, I’m taking the Kings tonight as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Sacramento Kings (-1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 507 Portland Trail Blazers @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #3
It’s tough for any team to beat the best teams in the league by simply “outscoring” them and for tonight, I really don’t think that POR will be able to be competitive @OKC due to their terrible physical spot.
This will be their 4th game in 5 days while they have faced @SAS, @DAL & @HOU last night…all top teams! In the first similar spot of the season, POR didn’t have a chance @MIN by losing the game 109-120.
POR is 2-0 so far in the season vs. OKC so this is also a “revenge” game for OKC. In the last h2h, OKC was dominating w/ some ease but they were outscored 16-27 in the 4th quarter w/ Durant shooting 0-5 FG! With the way Kevin Durant is playing lately I really don’t think we are going to watch such awful play from him down the stretch and therefore, I expect OKC to win this contest by 9/10 points.
This will be their 4th game in 5 days while they have faced @SAS, @DAL & @HOU last night…all top teams! In the first similar spot of the season, POR didn’t have a chance @MIN by losing the game 109-120.
POR is 2-0 so far in the season vs. OKC so this is also a “revenge” game for OKC. In the last h2h, OKC was dominating w/ some ease but they were outscored 16-27 in the 4th quarter w/ Durant shooting 0-5 FG! With the way Kevin Durant is playing lately I really don’t think we are going to watch such awful play from him down the stretch and therefore, I expect OKC to win this contest by 9/10 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 501 Boston Celtics @ 502 Miami Heat
Play #1
The key question for this contest: will MIA bounce back defensively after such embarrassing effort last night?
"We scored enough points to win, so obviously it was defense," James said. "Especially in the first half."
On my recap article of that game, I’ve said:
“However since 01/January, MIA has allowed 122.8 Off. Rtg to GSW at home; 123.0 Off. Rtg to NYK on the road; 130.0 Off. Rtg to WAS last week and yesterday, they allowed 127.5 Off. Rtg to the Hawks – this is a really a bad trend for them!”
Analyzing all those games/losses, there is a common factor...just look for MIA’s opponents numbers from 3pts land:
GSW 15-29 3pts
NYK 9-24 3pts
WAS 10-22 3pts
ATL 12-31 3pts
Those teams combined to hit 46-106 3pts - a 43.4% mark! The good news for them is that BOS is one of the worst 3pts teams in the league – ranked #27 w/ 33.2%; L10 games = ranked #28 w/ 28.9% or L5 games = ranked #29 w/ 25.0% 3pts! BOS offense will need some time to adjust to Rondo’s presence and MIA has the perfect spot to have a decent defensive game.
On the other side, BOS backcourt defense w/ Rondo & Bradley is quite decent but more importantly, I don’t think that MIA is in a good spot to put an offensive show – this will be their 4th game in 5 days (the first time this season that MIA is having such bad physical spot). Therefore, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.
"We scored enough points to win, so obviously it was defense," James said. "Especially in the first half."
On my recap article of that game, I’ve said:
“However since 01/January, MIA has allowed 122.8 Off. Rtg to GSW at home; 123.0 Off. Rtg to NYK on the road; 130.0 Off. Rtg to WAS last week and yesterday, they allowed 127.5 Off. Rtg to the Hawks – this is a really a bad trend for them!”
Analyzing all those games/losses, there is a common factor...just look for MIA’s opponents numbers from 3pts land:
GSW 15-29 3pts
NYK 9-24 3pts
WAS 10-22 3pts
ATL 12-31 3pts
Those teams combined to hit 46-106 3pts - a 43.4% mark! The good news for them is that BOS is one of the worst 3pts teams in the league – ranked #27 w/ 33.2%; L10 games = ranked #28 w/ 28.9% or L5 games = ranked #29 w/ 25.0% 3pts! BOS offense will need some time to adjust to Rondo’s presence and MIA has the perfect spot to have a decent defensive game.
On the other side, BOS backcourt defense w/ Rondo & Bradley is quite decent but more importantly, I don’t think that MIA is in a good spot to put an offensive show – this will be their 4th game in 5 days (the first time this season that MIA is having such bad physical spot). Therefore, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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