NBA - 501 Los Angeles Lakers @ 502 Miami Heat
Play #1
Sure, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in the L5 games while MIA is having some problems to remain focused and their schedule has been tough. However, this contest is a complete mismatch favoring MIA, and therefore I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
First of all, LAL’s offense has been decent as of late…they are attempting a lot of three pointers but b/c they are so shorthanded @ guards, they are prone to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. They’ve committed 21 TO’s vs. LAC, 17 vs. PHX, 20 vs. BOS and even in their last game @CHI, they committed 22 TO’s! This will be problematic for the Lakers tonight because they will face the #1 ranked team in the league in creating TO’s w/ 18.3% Opp. Turnovers per Possession. Also, MIA is the best team in the league defending P&R ball handler plays, so by design, MIA’s defense is the worst nightmare for LAL’s offense.
On the other end, LAL’s defense is obviously far away from being (even) a decent unit. It is too easy to score near the basket against them – they are allowing their opponents to hit almost 70% FG at the rim while their perimeter defense has been quite decent in L4 games w/ 4-19, 7-23, 9-30 & 7-21 3pts.
However, just look for the 3pts teams rankings of their opponents in those 4 games:
PHX #11 w/ 36.7%
BOS #28 w/ 33.2%
TOR #15 w/ 35.9%
CHI #26 w/ 33.9%
…
MIA #7 w/ 37.3%
Miami is playing consecutive home games since a long time and w/ one day rest between their last game vs. BOS and tonight’s TNT contest vs. LAL, I expect them to be “rested enough”, and because the matchup is so favorable for them, my fair line for this contest is MIA-15.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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