Saturday, January 4, 2014

NBA Free Premium Play 01/04: Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers

  
Philadelphia  at Portland 

NBA - 515 Philadelphia 76ers @ 516 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #6


PHI has been healthy lately and their aggressive offensive style has been pretty efficient in the L3 games as they have scored 111, 114 and 113 points. I went w/ OVER in their last game @SAC and despite losing the play, the 76ers did their part by scoring 113 points and posting almost 115 Off. Rtg.

They are focused in attacking the rim and pushing the pace to score in transition: L7 games they averaged 17.9 fast break points per game & 54.6 points in the paint.

The good news for them tonight is that the Blazers have the worst paint defense in the league allowing 48.9 points in the paint per game. Also, POR transition defense lately has been subpar by allowing 16, 17, 20, 13 and 19 fast break points in L5 games, so in a run and gun game, I expect PHI offense to keep rolling…

We can say the same thing for the Blazers offense that is coming from a 134-points explosion in their last game vs. CHA. PHI defense is awful all around but especially on the perimeter. Luckily for them, in L2 games they allowed only 5-25 & 7-23 3pts but note that they have faced DEN & SAC that are ranked #19 & #23 in 3pts shooting…the Blazers are just the best team in the league from behind the line and they are coming from a 21-33 3pts performance!

In the first h2h, the Blazers just torched PHI bad perimeter defense w/ 21-37 3pts while scoring 139 points! PHI was able to score well in the first half before fading away in the 2nd half (they scored 41 points) but note that they were playing @b2b nights and MCW was OUT due to an injury!

My fair line for this contest is 226/228 points so despite this “high” totals line, I really think we have some edge w/ the Over!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 223.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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