NBA - 805 Golden State Warriors @ 806 Atlanta Hawks
Play #4
Play #4
This is the 7th consecutive time that I’m backing the Warriors and so far, we are doing pretty well as the Warriors are playing in an extreme high level.
I understand this is a letdown spot and the Warriors “simply” cannot win all games, but I really think that the Hawks are going for this contest with the wrong mindset…
ATL won’t overpower the Warriors or punish them physically because like the Warriors, they are basically a jump shooting team.
Since Al Horford got injured, the Hawks have been almost exclusively a jump shooting team! In L3 games they have attempted the crazy numbers of 39, 39 and 29 three pointers! Note that with Horford healthy, their season average was just 23.9 3pts/attempted per game.
Also, the Hawks were averaging an NBA-best 25.9 assists per game prior to the injury and in the three games since that has dropped to 23.3 assists per game. Atlanta’s shooting efficiency has taken a drastic drop-off, with their eFG% dropping from 52.6% to 47.2% since the injury, and their offensive rating has been just 99.9 in the past three games after posting an offensive rating of 104.7 in the 28 games prior.
Basically, the Hawks will try to defeat the Warriors by outshooting team from long range, and all I want to say about this is: “good luck with that”!
GSW’s win last night @MIA wasn’t a surprise for me at all. Actually, I predicted that David Lee would have a good game and indeed he had w/ 13-17 FG 32pts, 14 reb and 3 assists stats line. GSW won the boards battle and they even didn’t need Andrew Bogut to be a factor (he played just 18 minutes).
ATL was able to be relatively competitive in the first 3 games without Horford, but note that they have faced CHA, ORL and BOS. Here are the 3pts shooting rankings of those 3 teams:
CHA #28
ORL #16
BOS #19
GSW is ranked #4 and they are coming from a 15-29 3pts shooting performance against the NBA Champions…
I understand this is a letdown spot and the Warriors “simply” cannot win all games, but I really think that the Hawks are going for this contest with the wrong mindset…
ATL won’t overpower the Warriors or punish them physically because like the Warriors, they are basically a jump shooting team.
Since Al Horford got injured, the Hawks have been almost exclusively a jump shooting team! In L3 games they have attempted the crazy numbers of 39, 39 and 29 three pointers! Note that with Horford healthy, their season average was just 23.9 3pts/attempted per game.
Also, the Hawks were averaging an NBA-best 25.9 assists per game prior to the injury and in the three games since that has dropped to 23.3 assists per game. Atlanta’s shooting efficiency has taken a drastic drop-off, with their eFG% dropping from 52.6% to 47.2% since the injury, and their offensive rating has been just 99.9 in the past three games after posting an offensive rating of 104.7 in the 28 games prior.
Basically, the Hawks will try to defeat the Warriors by outshooting team from long range, and all I want to say about this is: “good luck with that”!
GSW’s win last night @MIA wasn’t a surprise for me at all. Actually, I predicted that David Lee would have a good game and indeed he had w/ 13-17 FG 32pts, 14 reb and 3 assists stats line. GSW won the boards battle and they even didn’t need Andrew Bogut to be a factor (he played just 18 minutes).
ATL was able to be relatively competitive in the first 3 games without Horford, but note that they have faced CHA, ORL and BOS. Here are the 3pts shooting rankings of those 3 teams:
CHA #28
ORL #16
BOS #19
GSW is ranked #4 and they are coming from a 15-29 3pts shooting performance against the NBA Champions…
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Golden State Warriors (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 803 New Orleans Pelicans @ 804 Boston Celtics
Play #3
Play #3
MIN #5
POR 2x #1
HOU #3
DEN #18
SAC #13
LAC #8
GSW #12
Only the Nuggets are out of the top 15 and curiously, the Pelicans were able to hold them to just 89 points & Def. Rtg = 94.1! They are a good 3pts defensive team but they are struggling in defensive rebounding (ranked #24) and especially, they simply foul a lot and send their opponents to the charity stripe line way to much – ranked #29 in Opp. Free Throws attempted per game w/ 26.0! Their last loss @MIN is a good example as despite shooting 56% FG, the Wolves were able to grab 10 offensive boards & they went 35 times to the Free Throw line.
The good news is that the Celtics are far from being a good offensive team (ranked #23 in the league) and actually, they will be a favorable matchup for NO defense.
BOS don’t crash the boards offensively (ranked just #19 w/ 24.7% off. Reb/rate%). Their best offensive rebounder Jared Sullinger is banged up (wrist problem) and struggling as of late (3-9 FG, 4-14 FG, 1-6 FG and 5-12 FG lately). Also, BOS is ranked just #26 in Free Throws Attempted per Game w/ 20.3 FT/game. We can say now that two of the major defensive flaws of the Pelicans won’t be explored by the Celtics.
Note that the Celtics are in a b2b spot after playing @CHI last night and traveled only today for BOS due to the weather conditions in Chicago.
On the other side, BOS is ranked #11 defending Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays and #11 defending transition, so they are equipped to slow down the Pelicans offense that relies on these 2 key areas.
My fair line for this contest is 196/197 points and, therefore I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 809 Los Angeles Clippers @ 810 Dallas Mavericks
Play #1
Play #1
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
DAL is coming from a nice 3-game road trip in which they won all their games. However this is a classic letdown spot of “first home game after a tough road trip” and b/c I didn’t like their body language at all in the last game @WAS so I believe they are primed for a letdown.
Dirk Nowitzki struggled in those 3 games mainly because he faced some tough physical competition: Noah/Gibson @CHI, Kevin Love @MIN and last game Booker/Nene @WAS (note that Trevor Booker grabbed a career high 19 rebounds (7 offensive boards) in just 30 minutes of action). Tonight he will face Blake Griffin that is playing in a superstar elite level!
LAC defense is a tough matchup for this Mavericks offense. DAL is basically a jump shooting team that relies their offense in running multiple Pick n Rolls (their volume% P&R ball handler plays > 20%!). Despite being a good 3pts shooting team, DAL has been inconsistent as of late… They have some great offensive performances like shooting 10-21 vs. TOR, 11-22 @HOU or 13-26 @CHI but for example in the L2 games they shot only 6-24 3pts in both @MIN & @WAS.
The problem is that LAC defense is elite in both defending P&R BH plays (ranked #2 allowing just 0.70 PPP) and 3pts (ranked #4 allowing just 32.9%), so we have a team primed for a physical/mental letdown that is going to face a tough matchup for their offense.
On the other side, I expect the Clippers’ two best players to enjoy a substantial edge on the offensive end. DAL poor interior defense will have some major problems to stop Blake Griffin while it will be fun to watch Jose Calderon trying to defend Chris Paul…good luck with that!
The correlation of all these factors makes me playing the Los Angeles Clippers as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809 Los Angeles Clippers (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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