NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
C. Lee and J. Johnson have been nice pickups for them because both players not only can defend but they have some ability to shoot from long range – something that Tony Allen and Prince are lacking severely.
Just look for MEM’s A/TO ratio in the last 10 games: 2.07 A/TO! They are averaging 25.2 assists per game in L5 games vs. 21.3 in the first 31 games of the season.
Mike Conley struggled a bit after returning from an injury but right now, he has been ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS in the league: consecutive 30+ point outings against San Antonio and Phoenix, 13 assists against Atlanta, 13-13 from the foul line in the past two games, 3+ steals in three of the past five games, 3 three pointers in each of the four games prior to the Atlanta game, 51.2% from the field over his past five games.
Also, MEM’s defense has been improved dramatically. They are now defending better 3pts% w/ 34.0% 3pts% L10 games or 33.3% L5 games. Last game against the good perimeter offense of the Hawks, MEM held them to just 9-27 3pts w/ Kyle Korver just 1-2 3pts!
Finally, they are simply destroying their opponents on the boards w/ 55.7% rebounding/rate in the L10 games.
Right now, it’s not easy for any team in the league to win @MEM!
On the other, OKC is having natural problems on the offensive end without Westbrook ESPECIALLY in the half court. They had some good offensive games like vs. MIN & vs. BOS but those games were fast paced affairs, something that obviously won’t happen tonight against MEM.
In the halfcourt, OKC is having tremendous problems to generate good outside looks – just 51-162 3pts in L7 games! We can expect the same game plan from MEM as they had in the playoffs vs. OKC by putting a lot of pressure on Durant. Note that Durant is banged up for tonight w/ a bad wrist.
I understand that OKC has some revenge in their mind against MEM, but tonight is not the right time for their “revenge”, and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies tonight as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 506 Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
PREVIOUSLY ADDED
NBA - 503 Sacramento Kings @ 504 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
IND offense has struggled a bit in the last games w/ just 97.0 Off. Rtg in L6 games. Danny Granger is now having a bigger role in the team and obviously, it will take some time for him and for the team to develop the proper chemistry. However, IMO their offensive struggles are mainly related w/ a tough schedule, as they have played 7 games in just 11 games w/ plenty of traveling: home vs. CLE; @ TOR; home vs. NO; @ CLE; home vs. TOR; @ ATL and home vs. WAS.
For this contest, they enjoyed a nice 3-days off to rest and more importantly, they will face one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
SAC interior defensive is simply terrible and so we can expect D. West, Roy Hibbert and L. Scola to dominate down low on the offensive end against the #25 ranked defense vs. post up plays.
Obviously, the X factor for this play is related w/ the matchup IND defense vs. SAC offense…
SAC offense has been spectacular in L3 games w/ Off. Rtg. = 123.2, 117.4 & 132.9 while scoring 123, 103 and 124 points. They are attacking the rim and their transition game has been good as well. I expect SAC to push the pace at every opportunity in order to score in the open court.
SAC offense is now ranked #12 according to my numbers and IND defense has allowed Def. Rtg = 102.7 vs. top12 offensive teams in the league vs. pure domination against inferior level offensive competition of 94.96.
It will be so easy to score against SAC, that I expect IND to be a bit “relaxed” on the defensive end while SAC has some offensive weapons and the proper “good momentum” to score at a decent pace tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 194 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Los Angeles Lakers
Play #2
****TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
CLE was able to score w/ some ease early on the game especially by attacking the rim via their guards. Obviously, they couldn’t defend the Kings by any means as SAC was super efficient shooting the ball from long range. Suddenly, the Cavs stopped being aggressive and settled for long jumpers and the final outcome wasn’t good: they hit 4-17 FG from 16-23 feet & 7-21 behind the line!
Head Coach Mike Brown called out his players and I expect the team to answer tonight w/ a concerted effort while being aggressive since the start.
The good news is that the Lakers are a perfect matchup for the Cavaliers offense…
LAL is struggling right now w/ their lack of guards…they are committing too many turnovers and defensively we have to add the complete inability of the LAL frontcourt to protect the backcourt. Bottom line, it is too easy for the opponents to penetrate and finish at the rim. Just look for their opponent’s fast break points + points in the paint scored in the last games:
18 52
15 42
13 46
30 62
17 58
27 56
25 44
Opponents are shooting almost 70% FG at the rim in L6 games! We can expect K. Irving and D. Waiters to attack off the dribble especially coming from P&R’s and they won’t have any opposition from LAL. The drive-and-kick game from CLE has been working as they are hitting +40% behind the line L5 games, so offensive I expect CLE to have a major edge in his matchup.
On the other side, LAL offense is really struggling handling the ball and obviously it has been hard for them to generate good open looks especially from the outside: LAL offense 3pts % L10 games = 31.6% 3pts%, ranked #27 in the league. CLE perimeter defense received a big boost with Bynum leaving the team & Luol Deng being their SF, so I expect them to be decent tonight while their offense will crush the Lakers. It is easy to understand why I like CLE tonight…
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 507 Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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