NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Toronto Raptors
Play #1
TOR defense has been excellent by holding their opponents to just 86.7 points per game in L7 games but their offense has also improved dramatically as well. If we remove their game @IND because the Pacers’ defense is simply in another level, TOR has averaged 101.4 points per game in L11 games & nice 110 Offensive Rtg.
After facing some strong opposition, TOR will face tonight the lowly Bucks so I expect them to be more relaxed in both ends of the floor.
MIL isn’t a good defensive team, such statement is quite obvious but in L10 games, their perimeter defense has been truly awful by allowing 41.3% 3pts – the worst mark in the league!
The X factor for this contest is related w/ the matchup TOR defense vs. MIL offense. First of all, I expect TOR to be “a bit relaxed” on their defensive intensiveness (TOR is 8-4 OVER as home favorites this season)…
MIL offense obviously is struggling all season long, but in L3 games they really couldn't score near the basket – just 22.7 pts in the paint & 42.0% FG at the rim! But note that they have faced GSW, CHI & OKC –all elite defensive teams protecting the rim, so no wonder they struggled to score down low… I expect them to have better numbers in this department.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Houston Rockets @ 704 Boston Celtics
Play #2
The Celtics defense has been a pretty good underrated unit this season, but when they have faced the best offensive teams in the league, they just can’t defend at the same level…
OKC scored 119 points against them, DEN 129 points, LAC 111 points or POR in the last game 112 points (GSW was held to just 99 points but note that it was an awful spot for GSW w/ their first home game after a long road trip @East).
BOS in L10 games are allowing 36.9% behind the line, good for the #25 best mark in the league. Unfortunately for them, HOU is one of the best offensive teams in the league and BOS really don’t have anyone in their roster that can “slow down” Dwight Howard… eventually, they will have to double him and so, HOU shooters will be wide open! NOTE: C. Parsons looks like is probable for tonight!
HOU had a terrible bad offensive game @ATL while playing in a weird slow pace – it was their slowest paced game of the season for them! They made a concerted attempt to get back to basics in the next game vs. WAS w/ pushing the pace, and the outcome couldn’t have been better: 114 points for 117.0 Off. Rtg. while scoring 21 fast break points and 56 points in the paint.
On the other side, I expect BOS to score well via their guards against the bad perimeter HOU defense w/ Jeremy Lin and James Harden.
This contest will have a good tempo while both teams will have some nice edges on the offensive end.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 711 Orlando Magic @ 712 Dallas Mavericks
Play #3
ORL offense is struggling badly without Nikola Vucevic and to make things even worse, A. Afflalo is OUT as well. According to my numbers, here are their Offensive Rtg.’s in the last games:
89.08
85.30
103.55
87.67
103.20
93.21
100.82
They can’t score down low and their ball movement isn’t good enough to generate good outside looks – in those 7 games, they averaged just 18.6 assists per game!
The Mavericks defense has a good spot to make a nice defensive performance tonight…
On the other end, the Magic is a decent perimeter defensive team – they are ranked #9 in defending 3pts w/ 33.3% 3pts% defense. DAL is coming from two tremendous great offensive games vs. NO awful perimeter defense in b2b spot while they had to work hard in the last h2h in order to defeat them. Note that their starting backcourt Monta Ellis & Jose Calderon logged major w/ 41 and 35 minutes so I expect an offensive letdown tonight, and therefore, I’m taking the Under as my Single Dime Play.
89.08
85.30
103.55
87.67
103.20
93.21
100.82
They can’t score down low and their ball movement isn’t good enough to generate good outside looks – in those 7 games, they averaged just 18.6 assists per game!
The Mavericks defense has a good spot to make a nice defensive performance tonight…
On the other end, the Magic is a decent perimeter defensive team – they are ranked #9 in defending 3pts w/ 33.3% 3pts% defense. DAL is coming from two tremendous great offensive games vs. NO awful perimeter defense in b2b spot while they had to work hard in the last h2h in order to defeat them. Note that their starting backcourt Monta Ellis & Jose Calderon logged major w/ 41 and 35 minutes so I expect an offensive letdown tonight, and therefore, I’m taking the Under as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 198 @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline
NBA - 705 Phoenix Suns @ 706 New York Knicks
Play #4
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Phoenix Suns (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Washington Wizards @ 710 Chicago Bulls
Play #5
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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