NBA Premium Card 01/11

NBA - 513 New Orleans Pelicans @  514 Dallas Mavericks

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is a b2b home-home series, and last night I had the Under in this contest that cashed even though the first half ended up w/ 111 points scored.

I’ve said that one of the key factors for the play would be the potential slow paced nature of the game:

“NO with all the recent injuries is “forced” to play in a slower tempo… I have them w/ season pace factor = 91.6, but in L4 games they are playing = 87.2! It is one thing to play with Ryan Anderson as a stretch forward, and another thing to start Alexis Ajinca as a center. Quite naturally, the Pelicans have changed a bit their identity and this will be notorious in the near future. “

Well, the game had a pace factor = 85.6, and it was my numbers the #4 slowest paced game of the season for NO and THE SLOWEST paced game for the Mavericks in this season!

NO had natural problems to score in the contest as they are really shorthanded. To make things even worse, T. Evans got injured and likely won’t play tonight, while A. Davis and E. Gordon logged major minutes last night, so the scenario isn’t favorable for them.

The Under play was “in doubt” because the Mavericks were incredible on the offensive end by having Off. Rtg = 128.1 – their second best mark of the season! They just couldn’t miss their outside shots: 4-8 FG from 10-15 feet; 7-10 FG from 16-23feet and 14-28 behind the line! This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, I expect a natural regression from DAL offense especially from long range…

With the potential DAL’ offensive regression, accumulated w/ the natural NO problems on the offensive end and once again w/ a potential slow paced contest, we are dealing almost w/ the same totals line of last night’s h2h game and obviously, I’m taking the Under in here as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

Despite playing with an undersized lineup, the Nets are playing really SLOW as of late! According to my numbers, last night’s game vs. MIA was the slowest paced game of the season, and after 2 overtimes and major minutes logged from the Nets key players, I really don’t expect them to change their “approach” for tonight’s game. 

With tired legs, the Nets’ offense will be in trouble against the improved Raptors defense that is defending @ extreme high level! TOR L8 games defensive ratings = 97.4, only the Pacers have better numbers. Actually, TOR is right now ranked #6 in defense for the season. 

BKN improved play as of late has been mainly via their defense… L5 games their Def. Rtg = 102.0! Obviously, they are a bit undersized until their second unit comes in but the Raptors really don’t feed their big men enough to pound BKN down low. TOR is averaging just 33 points in the paint in L10 games! 

I expect this contest to be a slow paced half court affair with both teams struggling to get good looks, and therefore I’m taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 515 Orlando Magic @ 516 Denver Nuggets

Play #3

ORL is struggling right now without Nikola Vucevic and looks like A. Afflalo is OUT as well for tonight.

I went against them last night by taking SAC-7 and even the truly awful SAC defense was able to hold the Magic to just 83 points, it says it all about ORL offense right now…

In L3 games, ORL defense couldn’t stop opponents to score in transition by allowing 20, 16 and 21 fast break points; their rim defense in L4 games is allowing almost 70% from the field and their rebounding has been inconsistent as well.

So, with ORL struggling w/ transition, rim protection & rebounding on the defensive end, do you think that they will be able to stop DEN offense while playing in b2b nights and without two of their best players?!?

This will be the fourth consecutive time that I’m riding the Nuggets and they didn’t disappoint me in the 3 previous games because they literally crushed their opponents. Ty Lawson is “back” and playing his best basketball of the season and w/ him being aggressive, DEN frontcourt is now getting more involved offensively while suddenly, the Nuggets are hitting their outside shots as well.

My fair line for this contest is DEN by 15/16 points and so, we have the proper edge to take the Nuggets as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Denver Nuggets (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 505 New York Knicks @ 506 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #4

This contest is a perfect set up for a high scoring b/c the matchup favors both offenses…

PHI is far from being an efficient offensive team as they are scoring relatively well basically due to their insane fast tempo. They run plenty of Pick n Rolls w/ MCW, they attack the rim and they try to score in transition every single time… today they will have some great news because NYK is dead last in the league defending transition plays; they are ranked #27 defending P&R ball handler plays and, please do not tell me that NYK w/ K. Martin, Bargnani and Amare Stoudemire on the front, will be able to prevent PHI to penetrate and score at the rim…

However, PHI perimeter defense is truly awful and the Knicks are finally shooting well the basketball.  They are coming from a superb offensive game against the Heat last game w/ Off. Rtg = 123.0! They scored “only” 102 points because the game was super slow half court game, if somehow the game was played @PHI season pace factor, then NYK would have scored 121 points…

I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch w/ NYK scoring via perimeter vs. PHI scoring on transition + at the rim and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 207 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA - 507 Phoenix Suns @ 508 Detroit Pistons

Play #5

After struggling for 5 consecutive games in which DET couldn’t reach the century mark in points, DET offense had the perfect matchup last night vs. PHI, and indeed they took advantage of it by scoring 114 points.

DET was able to complete dominate the offensive glass – they had 60% reb/rate% w/ the incredible number of 25 offensive rebounds! Against the undersized and shorthanded PHI interior defense, DET scored 50 points and they even scored 24 fast break points as well!

Tonight’s game will be different….

First of all, PHX is ranked #1 in transition defense and so, I don’t expect the Pistons to have such big numbers in transition. I understand that PHX’s frontcourt is undersized & “soft” but they will pack the paint tonight knowing that DET struggles to score from the perimeter. They did exactly the same thing @MIN already in this week and it worked pretty well b/c Kevin Love & Pekovic struggled to score down low. Note that in L3 games, PHX rim defense has been spectacular by allowing their opponents to shot < 50% FG!

On the other side, PHX is really missing E. Bledsoe…

Their ball movement hasn’t been good, just look for their assists numbers L5 games: 18, 20, 12, 19 & 19 and obviously, with such problems in generating good outside looks, the Suns are struggling to hit their perimeter shots - L3 games = 6-23, 11-29 & 11-30. DET perimeter defense is subpar at best but they won’t be explored by PHX tonight.

Finally, note that both teams have terrible physical spots going for tonight w/ 4th game in 5 night’s, so we can expect this contest to not bet a particularly good game to watch.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Milwaukee Bucks @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #6

NOTE: no detailed write up to for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Oklahoma City Thunder (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 517 Boston Celtics @ 518 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #7

NOTE: no detailed write up to for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 511 Charlotte Bobcats @ 512 Chicago Bulls

Play #8

NOTE: LATE PLAY ADDED! CHI's J. Butler is banged up for tonight...

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Charlotte Bobcats (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker