NBA - 809 Phoenix Suns @ 810 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #1
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I went against PHX in their last game @MIN because the Suns have an undersized frontcourt, and so they are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams + paint defensive team. They are indeed a great perimeter defensive unit, but they struggled w/ interior defense. However, I’ve lost the play w/ MIN because the Wolves simply couldn’t score down low… at the half time, Kevin Love & Pekovic combined to shoot 3-20 FG and they eventually finished the game w/ awful 10-36 FG mark while the Wolves as a team finished w/ 16-35 FG at the rim – truly awful 45.7% FG AT THE RIM!
Well…the Grizzlies are a better rebounding team than MIN and they are clearly pounding their opponents down low. In the last game against SAS’s elite interior defense, MEM scored 58 points in the paint while in the first 2 H2H games vs. PHX, MEM scored 56 points in the paint in both contests!
I’ve won one of my strongest plays of the season w/ MEM+6 vs. SAS and I understand that it was a bit of a lucky win, b/c SAS was up by 12 points w/ 2min to go but it really shows how tough and hard MEM is playing right now.
MEM defeated the Suns in the last h2h @PHX even though Goran Dragic completely his matchup against Mike Conley. Conley had a subpar line of shooting 4-11 FG, grabbing 4 rebounds, 6 assists &. 6 TO’s while Dragic had 13-22 FG for 33pts and even 7 assists! However, that was the time when Conley was banged up… since last game he is averaging 22.6 points, 6.3 assists while shooting 50% FG! With this positional matchup being “50/50”, MEM’s frontcourt will just destroy once again the light and soft PHX interior defense.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 810 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 817 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 818 Utah Jazz
Play #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I really think CLE is going to be a tough matchup for the Jazz. CLE offense is somehow predictable and a bit stagnant but still, there is one type of play where they are elite: Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays (obviously, Kyrie Irving is THE factor) in which CLE is ranked #3 in the league.
The good news is that UTA’s P&R defense is one of the worst defensive teams in the league (ranked #24), and you only need to imagine rookie PG Trey Burke trying to defend 1*1 vs. Kyrie Irving….good luck with that!
CLE defense is actually playing better as of late by allowing just 91, 81, 89, 82 and 93 points in L5 games and the inclusion of Deng will certainly help them. They are also dominating the boards as well w/ some insane numbers – they owned the Pacers w/ 55% reb/rate% two games ago, and that’s a good sign when you are able to dominate the Pacers on the boards.
I understand that the Jazz is coming from a huge win against OKC in the last game but IMO, it was one of the most overrated/fluky wins of the season for a lowly team.
UTA only grabbed 40.9% of boards available (they were outrebounded 3-15 on the offensive glass) and they have committed 20 Turnovers. These two factors alone would be enough for them to lose big any game vs. good NBA team, but they were able to hit 58.8% of their shots!
However, note that they scored only 34 points in the paint and shot just 12-13 FG at the rim, so basically UTA was able to be incredibly efficient from the outside w/ INSANE 10-18 FG (55%) from “long 2’s” range while their season average is just 36% FG. (Note also that Serge Ibaka didn’t play the game)
UTA is primed for a BIG offensive letdown tonight…
Finally, Gordon Hawyard was the MVP of that game vs. OKC w/ incredible stats line: 13-16 FG, 2-3 3pts, 9-13 FT for 37 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and even one block! Some reports for today are saying that he is banged up (hip) and is a game-time decision…so even if he plays, he won’t be at 100%.
It is now easy to understand why I expect the Cavaliers to win tonight @UTA…
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 817 Cleveland Cavaliers ML @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker
NBA - 811 Dallas Mavericks @ 812 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #3
If this contest was played one month ago, I have no doubt that I would playing w/ the OVER @200 totals points line but the circumstances have changed dramatically…
NO with all the recent injuries is “forced” to play in a slower tempo… I have them w/ season pace factor = 91.6, but in L4 games they are playing = 87.2! It is one thing to play with Ryan Anderson as a stretch forward, and another thing to start Alexis Ajinca as a center. Quite naturally, the Pelicans have changed a bit their identity and this will be notorious in the near future. To make things worse, their starting PG Jrue Holiday will be out for about one month and B. Roberts will start in his place. Without Holiday, the Pelicans won’t have the same offensive explosiveness in the open court and so, I expect the Pelicans to play in the same style as of late.
Their interior defense has been awful and explored by their opponents but tonight they will face a Mavericks team that really isn’t capable of pound the Pelicans down low. Fatigue has been a problem for the old DAL roster and like NO, they have been playing in a slower pace as of late.
I expect this contest to be a relatively typical half court game between two jump shooting teams, in which both would have to shoot extremely well from long range to prevent us from winning w/ the Under, something that I don’t expect to happen.
Play #3
NO with all the recent injuries is “forced” to play in a slower tempo… I have them w/ season pace factor = 91.6, but in L4 games they are playing = 87.2! It is one thing to play with Ryan Anderson as a stretch forward, and another thing to start Alexis Ajinca as a center. Quite naturally, the Pelicans have changed a bit their identity and this will be notorious in the near future. To make things worse, their starting PG Jrue Holiday will be out for about one month and B. Roberts will start in his place. Without Holiday, the Pelicans won’t have the same offensive explosiveness in the open court and so, I expect the Pelicans to play in the same style as of late.
Their interior defense has been awful and explored by their opponents but tonight they will face a Mavericks team that really isn’t capable of pound the Pelicans down low. Fatigue has been a problem for the old DAL roster and like NO, they have been playing in a slower pace as of late.
I expect this contest to be a relatively typical half court game between two jump shooting teams, in which both would have to shoot extremely well from long range to prevent us from winning w/ the Under, something that I don’t expect to happen.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 801 Washington Wizards @ 802 Indiana Pacers
Play #4
Well, I think that the Wizards can be a competitive “dog” in this contest because the Pacers are in a bit of an offensive slump as of late, and their stellar defense by their own won’t be enough to crush WAS tonight.
Now that Danny Granger is finally playing more minutes and being part of the Pacers offensive system… IND is struggling offensively. In L6 games, IND has a subpar avg. 97.7 Offensive Ratings and their A/TO ratio says it all about their offensive problems: 18.5 assists per game vs. 17.0 Turnovers per game.
WAS has been rebounding well the ball w/ 54% rebounding/rate% L5 games, they are protecting well the paint by allowing less than 40 ppg in the paint L12 games and they even have the #7 ranked post up defense in the league. These decent numbers are important to “stop” IND’s post-centric offense.
The key question for tonight’s game will be the matchup between IND defense vs. WAS offense…
First of all, this incredible Pacers defense is forcing their opponents to shoot from the “worst shooting spot” long 2’s zone, and guess who is attempting more FGA’s from that spot? Yes, the Wizards! So we can say that WAS will be perfectly “OK” w/ taking these long range shots. Also, WAS’s “bigs” Gortat & Nene can shot from mid range, so IND’s best rim defense in the league won’t be tested tonight.
The first h2h between these two teams ended w/ a 20-pts blowout win by the Pacers but note that WAS was coming from a tough OT game in the previous night AND ESPECIALLY, Nene Hilario & Bradley Beal didn’t play that game and both are nuclear players for the Wizards.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 Washington Wizards (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 805 Houston Rockets @ 806 Atlanta Hawks
Play #5
Play #5
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 803 Detroit Pistons @ 804 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #6
Play #6
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Detroit Pistons (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 815 Chicago Bulls @ 816 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #7
Play #7
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Milwaukee Bucks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 819 Orlando Magic @ 820 Sacramento Kings
Play #8
Play #8
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 820 Sacramento Kings (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment