NBA - 801 San Antonio Spurs @ 802 Miami Heat
Play #1 & #2
Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don’t think that the “revenge” spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest.
In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last “good physical spot”). MIA defense hasn’t been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn’t rotate properly on the defensive end.
This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen.
SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they’ve committed 15, 17 and 22 TO’s in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat’s ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today.
The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green – their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays.
I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I’m also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on BetonlinePick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Miami Heat (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 805 Orlando Magic @ 806 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #3 & #4
I have to give some credit to NO because I went against them in L2 games and not only they covered the spread in both games, but they also won SU those 2 games. However, I really think it will be too much to ask them to basically crush the Magic in this contest.
First of all, both teams really aren’t playing any kind of defense lately…
NO has now in L10 games, Def. Rtg = 116.8! Their opponents are scoring easy points down low & NO is allowing almost 39% 3pts% in those games! Well, ORL isn’t doing much better… In L10 games, Def. Rtg = 115.5 while allowing 38.3% 3ps% during this stretch.
Without Vucevic, it’s imperative for us to “find out” if their starting backcourt Nelson + Afflalo + Oladipo have good matchups in order for them to be efficient. This happened in their last game vs. awful LAL’s perimeter defense w/ Nelson 7-11 FG, Afflalo 7-11 FG and Oladipo 5-14 FG but he had a good all around game w/ 15 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. That’s why I went w/ ORL-2 in that game!
The good news is that NO’s perimeter defense is also a subpar defensive unit (now that J. Holiday is OUT) and so, I expect ORL’s backcourt to have a decent offensive performance w/ ORL being extremely competitive while this contest is going to be a fast paced one w/ plenty of points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Orlando Magic (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on BetonlinePick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 807 Phoenix Suns @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #5
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This contest is a perfect matchup for a high scoring game and that’s why I’m taking the Over as a Top Play.
CLE’s offense has been better lately since L. Deng is playing for the team - In L6 games, they have a nice Off. Rtg = 111.9! Note that they don’t a particular good ball movement, but they are a strong offensive team in 2 categories: 1) P&R’s ball handler plays w/ their guards and 2) they are a good offensive rebounding team w/ Varejao and Thompson crashing the boards.
The good news?
Well, PHX is the THIRD worst defensive rebounding team in the league w/ 72.1% Def. Reb/rate% and they are coming from a game vs. WAS in which they allowed WAS to grab 19 offensive boards! Also, PHX defense is ranked just #22 defending P&R’s plays and they are really struggling lately in this department without E. Bledsoe. I expect CLE offense to have some great offensive edges in here.
However, PHX offense will also have some good edges, especially in 2 key areas: 1) CLE’s guards really can’t guard anyone (try watching K. Irving “playing” some defense) and so I expect Goran Dragic to have a good game w/ his usual aggressiveness; 2) CLE defense is just awful vs. transition plays (ranked #25) and allowing almost 15 fast break points per game L9 games, and this is really what PHX offense does best – ranked #1 in the league w/ 19.1 Fast Break pts/game!
PHX as usual will dictate the tempo of the game (fast paced affair obviously), and with both teams having some great edge on the offensive end, I’m taking the Over in here as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 809 Brooklyn Nets @ 810 Boston Celtics
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This Nets team has sucked pretty much all season long but right now, they are one of the best teams in the East and we really should enjoy it...
Note that they are still playing undersized and so, they are vulnerable on the boards and down low against skilled big men. They have still a subpar perimeter defense (too slow to rotate) and their opponents are having some good 3pts games against them. The good news for them is that BOS isn’t’ equipped to explore these weaknesses: 1) they are shooting just 27.9% 3pts% in L10 games (ranked #28 in the league) and 2) they don’t have any reliable inside presence that can punish BKN interior defense – they have scored just 32.5 points in the paint L4 games!
On the other side, BKN’s offense is really playing great lately! They are sharing the ball w/ 29 assists per game in L4 contests. Their bench has been spectacular w/ 74 points scored against DAL in the last game and honestly, this will be the key factor for today’s game vs. banged up BOS team.
BOS is really shorthanded @backcourt w/ Rondo still rusty & off sync w/ his teammates. BKN backcourt will torch them especially w/ Deron Williams coming off the bench.
The narrative of Pierce & KG coming back @BOS is really irrelevant for me… what really matters is that BKN is playing great lately while BOS has entered in “tank mode” in the last week, and therefore I expect BKN to win this contest quite easily.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809 Brooklyn Nets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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