NFL Premium Play 01/04

NFL Wild Card - 103 New Orleans Saints @ 104 Philadelphia Eagles

Play #2

So the Saints suck on the road and they really don’t have a chance tonight against the awesome Eagles running game! This is the primary narrative for this contest all around the web, but I really expect the Saints to be extremely competitive in this contest.

NO has lost 5 games on the road during the regular season but let’s take a look of their opponent’s ranks in pass defense…

DVOA Passing Defense rankings:
@NE #14 w/ +3.9%
@NYJ #17 w/ +7.4% (at the time, they were a top10 pass defense w/ -10.3%)
@SEA #1 w/-34.3%
@STL #15 w/ +4.8%
@CAR #3 w/ -18.0%

We can say that NO have faced top15 pass defenses that gave them some fits on their offense. Well, the Eagles pass defense is ranked just #25 in the league, and they are coming from a game in which they allowed the backup Kyle Orton to complete 65% of his passes for 358 yds and 7.8avg. The Cowboys explored Patrick Chung’s awful defensive skills to torched them w/ Jason Witten (he had 12 rec. & 135 yds) and the Saints have the best TE in the NFL w/ J. Graham, so we can expect Sean Payton to explore this matchup.

I’m aware that PHI running game will have some edge vs. #20 ranked rush defense of the Saints, but note that NO rush defense has been playing better in the last weeks:

Game Logs Def. Rush DVOA:

@SEA: -31.9%
CAR: +8.8%
@STL: +0.9%
@CAR: -13.4%
TB: -6.8%

On the road, against the dynamic Panther’s #4 ranked rush offense in the league, the Saints held them to a decent 81 rushing yds & 4.5 avg.

Rob Ryan’s aggressive approach to the game could make some damage to PHI offense, while I think that the superior experience of NO’s coaching staff and especially Drew Brees vs. Nick Foles will work favorably for the Saints as well, and therefore, I’m taking the Saints tonight as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 103 New Orleans Saints (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline