NBA - 513 Washington Wizards @ 514 Utah Jazz
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
My fair line for this contest is 204 points so w/ such huge edge, I have no other option than playing w/ OVER as a Top Play.
The matchup between these two teams favors a high scoring game…
UTA’s perimeter defense is simply horrible… their interior protection is non-existent as I have them allowing almost 70% FG at the rim, so it will be easy for WAS’s skilled big men to score down low.
The biggest mismatch IMO will be John Wall vs. rookie T. Burke… Burke doesn’t have the proper athleticism to slow down Wall. UTA is one of the worst P&R defensive teams for some reason and with Wall penetrating and attacking the rim, he will find the open teammate on the outside. That worked pretty well last night @PHX as Wall had 6-12 FG & 12 assists!
On the other side, WAS’s defense has been subpar lately. They are allowing 15.8 fast break pts per game in L6 games and even “lowly teams” are scoring well against them. UTA’s offense has been quite good as of late and now that Hayward is back, I expect them to push the pace vs. tired WAS team and so, this contest will be a fast paced affair w/ both offenses having some serious edges!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3 & #4
This contest is a classic home-home back to back series and last night I had MEM+6. However, I expect HOU to have some revenge tonight while the pace & matchup of the game won’t be that different and so, I expect this contest to be once again a low scoring game.
In my opinion, the X factor of yesterday’s game was the fact that Howard battled foul trouble and ended up playing only 30 minutes! Obviously, by being so shorthanded on the frontcourt and w/ Howard playing 30 min, MEM completely dominated the boards w/ 56.5% reb/rate% and scored 48 points in the paint vs. just 30 from HOU.
Note that w/ Howard on the court, MEM was outscored by 7 points!
HOU finished w/ nice mark of 14-34 3pts w/ Parsons having a remarkable night. I don’t expect him to repeat such awesome game but I also don’t expect MEM backcourt shooting 12-20 FG vs. 3-22 FG from HOU!
HOU’s ability to score 28 fast break points was also a good sign for tonight…
With Howard playing near 40-min mark, MEM won’t be able to score that many points in the paint while HOU’s will be able to generate good outside shooting looks and therefore, I’m taking HOU tonight. MEM’s pace will dictate the tempo of the game and under this scenario, I expect this contest to be a slow paced game as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Houston Rockets ML @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 Denver Nuggets
Play #5
Well, the Pacers have a terrible physical spot for tonight! This will be their 4th game of the current road trip; their 4th game in 6 days and nothing is worst that playing an Overtime in the previous day and then playing b2b @DEN in the next night!
Coach Vogel didn’t rotate his starters that well: Stephenson played 46 min, Paul George 41 min, Hill 40 min, Hibbert 39 min and West 37 min.
For some reason, IND’s defense is having some problems to slow down opp. Guards in L2 games:
Dragic 8-10 FG, 21 pts & Green 6-13 FG w/ 8-10 FT for 23 pts
Last night, Isaiah Thomas 13-31 FG, 10-10 FT for 38 pts & Thornton 16-27 FG for 42 pts!
This can be problematic because the Nuggets have Ty Lawson…
DEN is coming from a nice game @POR where they could and should have won the game but they choked down the stretch. They are rested and playing at home vs. tired team, IMO, they should have been the favorites in this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Denver Nuggets (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Both teams are coming from “terrible” defensive performances last night..
CHA defense really didn’t have a chance against Carmelo Anthony… maybe they should have doubled him earlier in the game, but when they did indeed doubled Melo, it didn’t matter…
On the other side, CHI defense was fulminated by an inspired Blake Griffin and a brigade of 3pts shooters…
The good news for them is that tonight, both will bounce back defensively as this matchup favors a low scoring game.
CHA is without Kemba Walker and without him, Al Jefferson has step up his game by scoring 22, 24 and 25 points in L3 games w/ nice FG%’s -> 32-60 FG 53.3%! The problem is that Big Al will have a tough matchup tonight against Noah & Gibson and w/ him having some problems to be efficient, CHA’s offense will struggle to score.
CHI offense has been streaky lately...they are having good offensive performances vs. teams that don’t protect the rim well but this is not the case w/ CHA defense that is allowing 58% FG at the rim!
CHI’s pace has been incredibly slow as of late and so, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ both teams having problems to create “easy” points down low.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Toronto Raptors
Play #2
My fair line for this contest is 202 points so @ 197.5/198 points, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER.
Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but I don’t think fatigue will be a big factor for tonight.
Both teams are sharing the ball quite well and so, they are creating plenty of good looks for their shooters… LAC had 26 assists vs. 7 TO’s last night vs. terrific CHI defense while TOR had 28 assists vs. 15 TO’s vs. PHI.
TOR’s P&R offense was super sharp last night w/ Lowry being a major factor (he had 7-11 FG, 18 pt, 10 reb and 13 assists), and for tonight I expect him to have some edge over D. Collison.
TOR’s is coming from 2 good defensive performances in L2 games, but they have faced DAL’s playing without Nowitzki and they have stopped PHI’s offense only in the 4th quarter. LAC’s offense is in “another level” and so , I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment