NBA Free Premium Play 01/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

Oklahoma City  at Miami

NBA - 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Miami Heat Play #2 Well, on the paper this matchup automatically “screams” for a high scoring contest because MIA in L5 games has a great 118.4 Off. Rtg to show, and OKC have even better Off. Rtg numbers w/ 119.9! However, the matchups and the projected pace of the game will eventually turn this contest into a relatively low scoring game. MIA’s biggest problem so far in the season has been their defense. Note that they are still an elite defensive unit vs. ball handler by being ranked #1 in P&R ball handler defense & #1 in the league in creating TO’s! However, their wing players are old and slow, and defensively MIA has some problems in rotating and covering the weak side of the ball. The good news for them is that OKC’s offense basically has been Kevin Durant…Kevin Durant and some more Kevin Durant! Despite their awesome offensive numbers in L5 games, OKC has averaged just 21.6 assists per game so, without making “extra passes”, MIA defense can focus on the strong side and put all the focus in Kevin Durant. MIA offense has been great indeed but just note for their opponents as of late: PHI, CHA, ATL, BOS, LAL and SAS (shorthanded)… OKC defense is in a complete another level – they are allowing just 31.7% 3pts% in L10 games (#4 best mark in the league) so I expect OKC to be solid defensively. Note also that OKC has faced some poor defenses as well as of late: SAC, POR, SAS (Leonard got injured early on the game), BOS, PHI & ATL. With both offenses being a bit overrated for this contest due to their “easy schedule” as of late, I expect both defenses to be the real highlight of this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada