NBA - 511 Miami Heat @ 512 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: 199 points
The Game 3 of this series showed another clear loss for the Bucks, but they still did some interesting things. They didn't want to play a lot of halfcourt sets and scored 20 fast break points with a nice 9-13 FG in transitions. Their frontcourt played well, with the Bucks scoring a series high of 46 points in the paint. The problem of the Bucks was that their two main starts, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, struggled on their shooting. Milwaukee managed to have their best numbers where it's easier to score (transition and down low), but they struggled on their 3pts shooting. But if we assume that they won't shoot 18-29 FT or commit 20 turnovers today, they should be able to have a quite positive offensive performance today.
On the other side, Miami did what we expect them to do. They had easy looks once again on the perimeter, but this time they finally had a nice 3pts shooting game with 8-19 3pts! Everything was easy for the Heat in Game 3, with them having 31 assists on the 41 shots they made in the game. Of course it's not easy for Miami to have these great numbers again, but Dwyane Wade is out and he shot 1-12 FG in Game 3, while they won't shoot 14-25 FT as a team and it's also unlikely that they will commit 19 turnovers once again today. Even though this game may have worse FG% than Game 3, that will compensated with an improvement in these three areas. Therefore, after the Game 3 had 195 points scored, I expect today's game to be a little bit more and with this game having the same totals line as Game 3, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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