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You can forget UFC for the following week. The real fight will happen on this playoff series! Since the past season, these two teams have faced each other 14 times. So, we can definitely say that they know each other very well and there won't be a lot of secrets being explored on this series. The Clippers started the regular season at full speed, but they had some regression during the 2nd half of the season, mostly due to some defensive issues. They average a defensive rating of 103.7 during the 1st half of the season, but just 108.7 after the All Star break. I don't believe Eric Bledsoe's physical issues justify such regression on its own. In fact, during my scouting on the Clippers, I've noticed that they struggled in rotating properly to close out the shooters on the outside and their frontcourt players rarely make the smart decision between hedging out or trapping the opposing ball handler. So, it's no surprise for me that the LA team was just #26 in the league on 3pts defense with 37.3% allowed during the regular season. But are the Grizzlies ready to explore the biggest weakness of the Clippers's defense? Note that Memphis was the team that had the least amount of 3pts attempts during the regular season with just 13.5 attempted treys per game, while they were also just #24 in 3pts% with 34.5%!
On the other hand, everything will go through the hands of Chris Paul. He is the Clippers's floor general and the guy who will get the ball down the stretch for the LA team. Memphis's defense has been an elite unit all season long and they are averaging an incredible 101.6 defensive rating since the Gay/Prince trade. Mike Conley, Tony Allen and even Tayshaun Prince will get minutes defending Chris Paul during this season, in order to give him different looks. The Clippers's perimeter shooting has been streaky and just like it happens on the other end of the floor, the perimeter shooting will also be the key of the Clippers's offense on this series. If the LA team isn't able to be consistent on their 3pts shooting, then they become similar to the Grizzlies's offense.
The Clippers won the regular season series against the Grizzlies by 3-1 and note that the only win the Grizzlies had against the Clippers on the regular season was at LA. Memphis shot 7-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-12 3pts on their win, exposing how poor the Clippers's perimeter defense can be. This will be the key factor on this matchup, on a series that I predict to be similar to the one they had last season.
Prediction: Memphis in 6/7 games (if their perimeter shooting is effective) / LA Clippers in 6/7 games (if the Grizzlies struggle on their threes and the Clippers are consistent on their long-range shooting)
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