MLB - 961 San Diego Padres @ 962 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: J. Marquis vs C. Capuano)
Jason Marquis got away with some potential trouble on his last start that was exactly against the Dodgers. He allowed two runs in five innings, but he put a lot of baserunners in action by allowing 7 hits and 4 walks. This is why he threw 102 pitches in just 5 innings, while having 48 balls and 54 strikes. Now on another outing against the Dodgers, I expect their hitters to pound Marquis, as they will get a second look at him in less than one week.
On the other side, Chris Capuano will have their first start of the season, as he is replacing Zach Greinke in the rotation. As he is a flyball pitcher, he will benefit from pitching at LA, especially when the Padres's lineup is struggling early on the season against LH pitchers by being just #23 in the league with .584 OPS! San Diego won yesterday's game by 6-3, but the Dodgers's offense had 12 hits, but they left 24 runners on base! They will bounce back tonight and get an easy win over San Diego tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1 (w/ C. Capuano) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes
MLB - 963 Chicago White Sox @ 964 Toronto Blue Jays
(Starting Pitchers: D. Axelrod vs J. Johnson)
Josh Johnson is coming from a terrible outing at Detroit, where it seems that he froze with the cold weather. His fastball had no energy, as his fastball speed was about 3kph slower than it was on his first outing of the season against the Red Sox. Now on a much better spot, I expect him to bounce back tonight. Mark Buehrle also struggled on his first two outings of the season and he dominated yesterday. I expect the same to happen with Johnson tonight, as the White Sox's lineup gambles too much and so, their batters are unlikely to be walked often. The White Sox's batters are just hitting .200 BA and .658 OPS against him in 45 AB's, so I believe Johnson will indeed bounce back tonight.
On the other side, Dylan Axelrod didn't impress me one bit on his first two starts of the season. His command was quite poor (2/3 and 2/4 K/BB), as shown by the 41 balls and 56 strikes he had against Seattle plus the 44 balls and 59 strikes against Washington. This is why he threw almost 100 pitches on his first two starts, but he couldn't even reach the 6th inning of those games. I expect Toronto's lineup to pound him today, while Johnson bounces back, therefore I expect the Blue Jays to pick an easy win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 964 Toronto Blue Jays RL -1 (w/ J. Johnson) @ -118 / 1.847 on 5Dimes
MLB - 967 Tampa Bay Rays @ 968 Baltimore Orioles
(Starting Pitchers: R. Hernandez vs J. Arrieta)
I believe that we have good value on the Rays tonight. Roberto Hernandez struggled on his first two outings of the season with a 6.08 ERA, but his advanced numbers are much better with 3.93 FIP and 4.00 xFIP. He is throwing a lot of groundballs and he is going deep as well, with 6.2 innings pitched on each of his first two outings of the season. I don't expect him to shutdown the Orioles tonight, but I expect him to be decent.
Baltimore will start Jake Arrieta, who has been struggling with poor control, including six walks in ten innings pitched. I expect Tampa Bay to put Arrieta in trouble, while Hernandez should be decent in here, therefore I see good value on the Rays tonight as underdogs.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ R. Hernandez) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bovada
MLB - 969 Los Angeles Angels @ 970 Minnesota Twins
(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs M. Pelfrey)
I believe Jason Vargas is actually being underrated for tonight's game. He played at Texas on a super bad spot for him, as he is a flyball pitcher, but he hung around very well, with no homeruns allowed. Then, he struggled against Oakland with 10 hits and 5ER allowed in just 5.2 innings, however the Athletics are just crushing every LH pitcher in sight on this early season. Vargas will now face the Twins, who are just #28 this season on hitting against LHP with .552 OPS! Therefore, this is a good spot for Vargas to bounce back.
On the other side, Minnesota will start Mike Pelfrey tonight and he will have a super tough matchup against the Angels's lineup. Pelfrey has already showed that he is starting this season with no strikeout punch, with just 2 K's on his first two starts of the season: 1/2 and 1/0 K/BB ratios. It's close to impossible for a SP to dominate this Angels's lineup via contact pitching. Their offense struggled on the first week of the regular season, but they have been better on their last three games with .351, .290 and .265 BA. Pelfrey throws about 70% fastballs and despite all their struggles on the early season, the Angels are #4 in the league in hitting fastballs. Therefore, I expect the LA team to pick up a comfortable win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Vargas) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes
MLB - 973 Detroit Tigers @ 974 Seattle Mariners
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs A. Harang)
Aaron Harang will make his debut for the Mariners tonight, who acquired him from the Rockies last week, after Colorado designated him for assignment. The Rockies had traded for Harang only four days earlier. Harang was a complete disaster in Spring Training for the Dodgers, while allowing 17 runs in 18.2 innings. He is also coming from a season where his 6.54 strikes out per nine innings ratio was nearly a career low, while the Dodger Stadium undoubtedly helped the fly ball pitcher suppress his home run rate, as Harang's 6.3% HR/FB ratio from last season was significantly lower than his 10.6% career figure in the category. Harang is getting pounded tonight, especially because the Tigers's lineup has woken up and they are already #1 in the league with .307 BA! Harang with his decreasing K% will struggle to eliminate the Tigers's hitters tonight, especially with Detroit having a nice spot, as they had one day off prior to this contest.
On the other hand, Doug Fister will be fired up to have a good outing tonight against his former team. He is coming from a tremendous start against Toronto, where he had a 2.53 FIP. The Mariners's lineup has a lot of power, but they will struggle tonight against a groundball machine like Fister. Seattle is just #25 in the league with 40.6% GB% and therefore, Fister should have another quality outing in here. If we combine that with the Tigers pounding Harang, I expect Detroit to pick up an easy win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 973 Detroit Tigers RL -1 (w/ D. Fister) @ -136 / 1.735 on 5Dimes
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