Sunday, April 21, 2013

NBA Premium Play 04/20: Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets


NBA - 705 Chicago Bulls @ 706 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 8 points

On this matchup, I believe the two players of Chicago that would be the key for them against the Nets are currently injured: Derrick Rose (who may play later in the series, but never at 100%) and especially Joakim Noah. These two players would be the key for the Bulls, as Brooklyn's best players play exactly on these two positions. There isn't a lot to talk about the Bulls. Shorthanded or not, they play hard and are incredibly physical. It's impossible not to admire how much effort they put on court and it's important to note that they were the team that ended with the two big streaks of the 2nd half of the season: Miami and the NY Knicks! In regular season games, nobody plays as hard as they do. They won the regular season series against Brooklyn by 3-1, but things at the playoffs should be a bit different. 

Like I've mentioned, the Bulls's effort is tremendous in every game, while the Nets were accused during the regular season of not having a "good motor". Coincidentally or not, the Nets's three losses against the Bulls on the regular season were on back to back spots for them, while Chicago was rested on these three games! Deron Williams has been a new player since the All Star break by averaging 48.1% FG, 42.0% 3pts, 22.9 ppg and 8.0 apg! I watched the last game between these two teams, played already in April, where the Bulls won at Brooklyn by 92-90. Note that it was a terrible spot for Brooklyn, who was returning home after a tough 7-games road trip, where they literally played all over the country: Detroit, Dallas, LA Clippers, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Utah and Cleveland! To make things worse for them, that was also a back to back spot for them. The Nets even had a good start by outscoring the Bulls by 26-13 in the first quarter and during that period, it was evident how much the Bulls need a healthy Joakim Noah, as Brook Lopez absolutely crushed Nazr Mohammed with 8-9 FG and 18 points on the first quarter! Deron Williams was great as well while dominating both Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson with 30 points and 10 assists, while Joe Johnson struggled, but that was his first game back from injury, so he was lacking rhythm for his typical isolation plays. 

These two tremendous positional edges at PG and Center won't disappear for the Nets on this series. Note that on the last game against the Nets that Joakim Noah played, he did the following: 10-13 FG, 21 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 blocks and 2 steals! Today, with both teams on the same physical spot, I don't expect Chicago to have the physical edge that they had on the three games where they've defeated the Nets during the regular season. This time, I expect Brooklyn to outplay Chicago, especially down the stretch, where they will outplay the Bulls with their superior offensive power. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nets on the Game 1 of this series.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Brooklyn Nets (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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