Projected Line: 184 points
The Hawks must be regretting their decision of not fighting for the 5th seed in the East on the last week of the regular season, in order to face Brooklyn in the first around and avoid facing Indiana, as their physicality is just too much for them. I understood Larry Drew's decision of using a speedy lineup of Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague in the first two games. The Hawks tried to attack Indiana in transition with their two quick guards and prevent Indiana's defense to shut them down in halfcourt. This has actually worked, as Atlanta shot better than Indiana in the first two games of the season with a higher FG% plus they scored a nice 17 fast break points in Game 2 against the team that is #1 in the league on transition defense!
However, they played so small that their defense was completely crushed by Indiana's offense that scored +110 points in the first two games of the series. Josh Smith and Al Horford had to guard the huge Pacers frontcourt and that resulted in Al Horford getting into foul trouble in Game 1 and then, Josh Smith having the same fate in Game 2. Kyle Korver tried to defend Paul George in Game 1 and was a disaster. Then, Devin Harris guarded Paul George in Game 2 and he was actually decent in that. But the truth is that Indiana dominated them down low by winning the boards battle in the first two games of the series plus gaining a lot of fouls due to their size edge. The discrepancy in free throw attempts of the two teams has been huge for Indiana on this series plus they have been red hot from the outside, something unusual for them, who tend to be streaky on their long-range shooting.
Because of all of these, Larry Drew had no other option but confirm that Atlanta will "play big" on tonight's game. It looks like Johan Petro will start at Center, moving Al Horford to PF and Josh Smith to the SF position, allowing Kyle Korver to come off the bench.
"Certainly, minus Zaza, that kind of puts us behind the eight-ball" Larry Drew said. "But I feel confident we can match up. We have ability to go big. We have ability to go small. The first couple of games, we played a lot of small. We tried to utilize our speed and our quickness. Now we may change a little bit."
Kyle Korver will leave the starting lineup and the truth is that Indiana has been doing a great job in closing out Korver and with Petro/Johnson on the lineup, we will have Josh Smith guarding Paul George and Al Horford defending David West. Johan Petro is a solid defensive post up player, but he is very limited on offense. Atlanta tried to win via offense on the first two games of the season and they got crushed, so the Hawks will be trying a different approach tonight. So, an inevitable offensive regression from Atlanta will happen today. Without a great shooter like Kyle Korver on the starting lineup, Josh Smith will play at the perimeter more and that will end in Smith taking some terrible outside shots as usual. The floor spacing of the Hawks's offense won't be as good as usual and with that, Indiana's elite defense will shut them down tonight. But, on the other hand, Atlanta will also be doing a better defensive performance. We have to expect an inevitable regression on the Pacers's shooting and even the free throw numbers of the Pacers won't be as huge as they were on the first two games tonight, especially as they will be playing on the road this time. I expect this game to be the first low scoring contest of this series and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 189 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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