NBA - 713 Milwaukee Bucks @ 714 Miami Heat
Projected Line: Miami by 17 points
Nobody expects the Bucks to beat the Heat on this series, except Brandon Jennings, who publicly mentioned that Milwaukee would beat Miami in six games, something that will only cause Miami to come fired up today to destroy the Bucks. During the regular season, we saw Miami would using their extra gear when they really needed. For several times, we saw the Heat hanging around against inferior teams, just to insert an extra gear down the stretch and win their games. Today, I expect the Heat to use their "extra gear" for a longer period of time.
Any team will have a very tough task against Miami on the playoffs, but things will be even tougher for the Bucks on this series. Milwaukee's most used lineup features a 3-guard combo with Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick and even though these three layers are capable of doing some damage on offense, their defensive level is disastrous, as they are all undersized and so, they will get pounded today by Dwyane Wade and Lebron James. Milwaukee's coach will be forced to use Marquis Daniels and Luc Mbah a Moute for defensive proposes thanks to that, but that will only destroy their offensive chemistry, without boosting their defense that much. Larry Sanders's back problems are still an issue and he isn't at 100% right now. Chris Bosh will also be a tough matchup for him, as he plays away from the basket most of the time, so Sanders will have to leave the rim on defense, the area where he dominates with his shot-blocking abilities.
These two teams faced each other already in April, with the Heat comfortably winning the game, even though they played without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Lebron James simply dominated the game in every single way. The Heat won the contest by "just" 11 points because they struggled to hit treys with 8-35 3pts, despite having almost every time a clean look. Lebron had 11-16 FG, 28 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 30 minutes, with the Heat outscoring the Bucks by 21 points during the time Lebron was on court. Miami's dynamic offense won't have any problem in scoring against Milwaukee today. I expect the Heat's defense to be aggressive and they are an elite team on pressuring the opposing ball handler, closing lanes and the Bucks are turnover prone. They committed 20 turnovers on their last game against Heat and with so many turnovers, Miami's excellent transition game will have lots of chances today to score a high number of fast break points. This should all result on a blowout win for Miami and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Miami Heat (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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