NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Golden State Warriors
Projected Lines: 208 points | Denver by 5 points
The Game 3 of this series saw Denver being more competitive than they had been on Game 2. I didn't like the fact that George Karl abandoned his usual lineup with Kenneth Faried and Kostas Koufos on the frontcourt, but at least Faried moved much better on Game 3 than he had done in Game 2. Denver's improvements were mostly on defense, especially on the 1st half. The Nuggets trapped the pick and roll consistently and they were effective in removing Klay Thompson out of the game. Inexplicably, Denver abandoned that game plan in the second half. I don't know what happened, but that was the key for their loss. I believe Denver will be more focused in following their gameplan for the whole 48 minutes today.
The last game between these two teams had 218 points scored, but its 2nd half was a reflection of what I expect it will be happen tonight. Golden State did a great defensive job with Andrew Bogut managing to do a solid job in limiting Denver's rim offense and especially in avoiding the Nuggets to score second chance points. However, Denver with a similar approach to Game 3 should have more chances of winning tonight. Of course Stephen Curry is an incredible shooter, but Golden State also benefited from an incredible shooting of Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes in the previous game, as they shot a combined of 17-29 FG, something close to impossible of being repeated today. This will be the first time the two teams have just 1 day off to rest between games and therefore, Denver's superior depth should be the key in here. In the last game, Golden State's starters played more than 36 minute excluding Bogut and they will pay the price today. Denver will come aggressive and I expect to win the boards battle for the first time this season. This should give them a relatively comfortable in here, on a well fought contest like last game's second half was. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 212,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Denver Nuggets (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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