NBA - 707 Memphis Grizzlies @ 708 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 184 points
This series will be very physical and we will surely have good opportunities to cash some Under plays in some of its games. However, we are today in presence of the best scenario this series will have for a relatively high scoring game, as I have a projected line of 184 points in here. The Clippers's gameplan at home will surely be push more the pace in order to score in transition, one of their strongest areas. The LA team has also more depth, so we can expect their second unit to push the pace as well today. Chris Paul has already mentioned exactly that:
"We're in a situation where if we play the way we know how to play, we don't have to worry about what they're doing," Chris Paul said. "We can impose our will, pick up the tempo and just play."
The last game played between these two teams ended with 178 points scored and there was a clear difference between the first and the second half: 51-51 vs 36-40. The difference in the points scored in the two halves was related with the fact that both teams were on back to back spots, where they had to travel to play at Memphis. They got tired in the second half, with the opposing defenses outplaying their offenses.
Jerryd Bayless is now Memphis's 6th man and Coach Hollins has been using him a lot of the backcourt alongside Mike Conley. Thanks to that, the Grizzlies can now also score in transition given the chance. Note that when Memphis won at LA against the Clippers back in March, they didn't score a single fast break point, but on the last game between these two teams, with Bayless having a more prominent role on the rotation, they scored 12 fast break points!
I also expect this game to be well controlled by the referees, who won't allow this game to become a grudge match because that would be brutal on a potential 7-games series if things get out of hands immediately on Game 1. Coincidentally or not, the NBA assigned Scott Foster for tonight's game as the main ref and he is the referee who called more fouls on the regular season. So, I expect the referees to make some tight calls in here and turn this contest into a free-throw fest. Also don't discount the fact that Memphis will use some hack-a-Jordan during tonight's game as well. Therefore, I see this game being a relatively high-scoring game for a contest between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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