Projected Lines: 208 points | Oklahoma City by 7 points
Oklahoma City is one of the few playoff teams that isn't struggling with injuries right now. The fact that they are a young team helps, but the truth is that they don't have a single injured player on the roster right now. They are tied with San Antonio for the #1 seed in the Western Conference and their goal is quite clear: homecourt advantage over any Western Conference team throughout the playoffs. Therefore, they won't be resting players tonight. On the other hand, Golden State is coming from a blowout home win over Minnesota that secured a playoff spot for them. Golden State won six games out of their past eight to clinch their first playoff berth since 2007 and will make the franchise's second postseason appearance in 19 seasons.
"We celebrated, and rightfully so," Warriors head coach Mark Jackson said, still red-eyed from leading an emotional postgame locker-room party. "People questioned us, and they should have. People doubted us, and they should have.
I believe that we will have teams with two very different intensity levels tonight. Not only Oklahoma City is the better team out of the two, but they are also playing with more intensity. Their schedule has been tough, but they have been ultra competitive in their games. They played their last games against San Antonio, Indiana, NY Knicks and Utah, in a clear sign that they have been recently involved in some heavyweight fights. On the other side, Golden State has been dealing with the opposite, as they had a very easy recent schedule, where they took advantage to win some games against lowly teams like Sacramento, Portland, New Orleans, Phoenix and Minnesota. In fact, the only team that they've recently faced with a winning record was Utah and they lost that game.
Oklahoma City's superior defense and intensity will be the key for this game. However, I believe this game will be a shootout. The Thunder's defense has been great, especially when they face teams who base their game via frontcourt and not via their guards. They held Tim Duncan's San Antonio to just 88 points, they held Roy Hibbert's and David West's Indiana to just 75 points, while on their last game, they held Al Jefferson's and Paul Millsap's Utah to just 80 points. In those contests, Kendrick Perkins is really super useful to the team, but they have a lot more problems against teams who spread the floor and are guard-oriented like the Warriors. Therefore, I expect Golden State to have a decent offensive outcome on this game, even though I expect Oklahoma City to dominate this contest with their much higher intensity. Looking at all of these, I'll be taking both the Thunder and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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