NBA - 731 Los Angeles Lakers @ 732 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 185 points | San Antonio by 5 points
I really liked how the Lakers defended in Game 1. Dwight Howard is now close to his best level and showing why he is a three-time defensive player of the year. He got outplayed here and there by Tim Duncan, who is playing amazingly, but in general Howard is dominating on paint defense once again by altering several shots, including on Tony Parker's penetrations. San Antonio shot just 11-22 FG at the rim in Game 1! On the frontcourt duel, Pau Gasol is excellent as point forward by dishing some excellent assists. The frontcourt combo of Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard has only Tim Duncan as a real threat, as Tiago Splitter is still lacking experience to play at the level of the other three frontcourt players. Splitter shot 0-4 FG in 29 minutes and he struggled in both ends of the floor. The problem is that the Spurs have no frontcourt depth and they were a bit fortunate that Matt Bonner played well with some lucky key boards, but that won't happen twice in a row. Manu Ginobili had a great game, but if it wasn't that, the Spurs would have been screwed, as they shot 37.6% FG as a team in Game 1!
I expect the Spurs to shoot a bit better today, as they missed some good looks, but they also had an unexpected rebound edge and a nice turnover differential (9TO for the Spurs, 18TO for the Lakers). I don't expect the Spurs to have such edges on these two areas today. The Lakers will continue having an edge on the frontcourt with Gasol and Howard, especially with Howard being more dominant than he was in Game 1. This will be tough for Duncan, who will have to spend a lot of energy on defense that he will be then missing on offense. Steve Nash was lacking some rhythm in Game 1 after missing several games and thanks to that, he missed some wide open looks. Now on Game 2, with a bit more rhythm, he won't shoot 6-15 FG as he did in
Game 1, as he will certainly continuing getting some nice looks tonight, as the Spurs will be more focused on defending the Lakers's frontcourt.
It's also important to mention that San Antonio's defense was excellent in Game 1 and even though they are allowing some space to the Lakers's perimeter shooters, the LA team doesn't have a lot of shooters to pound them from the outside anyways. I believe Gregg Popovich knows he will be winning this series through defense and therefore, I expect another low scoring game in here, with the Lakers led by Dwight Howard turning this game into a very competitive one. So, I'll be taking both the Lakers and the Under tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731/732 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731 Los Angeles Lakers (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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