Projected Line: 170 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This is in my opinion, the best spot of this series for a low scoring game, as we are in front of two teams that had just one day off to rest, while this contest will be also an early game. Therefore, the little time for rest between games on this very physical series is brutal for both teams. Memphis finally managed to win a game on this series on Game 3 and their gameplan was pretty easy to understand and it was also the main reason why I also took the Under in that game. They slowed down a bit the pace of the game, especially when the Clippers's second unit was on court to avoid the LA team to have a bunch of transition points. For the first time on this series, the Clippers had single digits fast break points, With the game being a pure half court contest, the Grizzlies didn't concede good looks to the Clippers due to their great perimeter defense, even though the LA team still shot 9-23 3pts! But overall, the Grizzlies's defense was at a level that they hadn't reached in both Game 1 and 2.
On the other side, Memphis's offense has to work a lot to generate points. We all know that they don't have good shooting skills and this was proven with their 4-16 3pts. The Grizzlies have now shot 11-39 (28%) on the first three games of this series! The Clippers's defense is simply packing the paint and dare Memphis to shoot from the outside. Perhaps both teams will shoot a bit better today, but the referees from Game 3 were too tight on the calls and they didn't let the teams to get physical. Not only there were a lot of free throws attempts, as both teams were very effective from the charity line, with the Clippers shooting 21-23 FT (Blake Griffin had 6-7 FT!)! The potential improved shooting on today's game will be compensated by less free throws attempts and less effectiveness on the charity line, so I expect another very low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 178 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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