NBA - 701 Chicago Bulls @ 702 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 194 points
NOTE: No writeup for this contest
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 200 points
We have in here a game between two teams that don't have a lot of incentive to win and so, I don't believe in a lot of intensity from them today, especially on defense. I watched Detroit playing at Cleveland and it was incredible the lack of aggressiveness of the Cavaliers's interior defense, combined with the lack of effort from their perimeter defense as well, especially Kyrie Irving who is playing without any kind of aggressiveness right now. Thanks to that, Detroit scored 60 points in the paint against the soft Cavaliers's frontcourt. On their last game against the Knicks, Cleveland's poor interior defense wasn't exposed as the NY team is a jump shooter team. Still, the Knicks ended the game with a 116.3 offensive rating and the game "only" had 192 points because the Knicks set a super slow pace, as they were on a super tough physical spot, after having played an overtime game at Chicago the night before. Therefore, I expect Philadelphia's offense to play well against the Cavaliers's defense. The Sixers have been playing at a much faster pace lately, with a 21.00%, 15.50%, 18.80% and 18.50% volume on transition plays! Thanks to that, Philadelphia scored 24, 18 and 17 fast break points on their last three games.
On defense, Philadelphia is coming from a nice performance at Washington, but that was mostly due to the Wizards's demerit, who just couldn't make a long range shot: 1-13 3pts! I expect Cleveland to do much better today. The first three games of the season between these two teams were low scoring games, with relative slow paces of 84.90, 89.68 and 85.92. I expect a completely different game today pace-wise and with both teams showing no intensity on defense. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Projected Line: Brooklyn by 9 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Brooklyn is still dreaming with the #3 seed in the East and they are fighting for it a lot, not to avoid Chicago or Atlanta in the first round, but to avoid a potential second series against Miami. They are coming from two nice wins on the road at Boston and Indiana and I expect them to crush Toronto down low today, like they did against Philadelphia last week. Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are playing well, but it will be via rebounding and paint domination that Brooklyn will have their biggest edge today against the Raptors, who will be playing without their rookie Jonas Valanciunas.
Toronto is coming from a nice home win against Chicago, mostly due to the Bulls's horrible spot that were coming from an overtime home win against the Knicks the night before. Toronto simply limited to attack the Bulls's tired legs in transition, scoring 23 fast break points in the process. Chicago's lack of energy was evident on the rebounding, where the Bulls managed to grab 60% of the rebounds on their home game against Toronto earlier in the week, but they couldn't have an edge on boards on this game played in Canada. The Nets's defense has been a bit sloppy in closing out on the shooters lately, but Toronto is one of the worst 3pts shooting teams in the league. Brooklyn is clearly a better team than Toronto and they also have their mindset in getting the win today over the Raptors who won't have the same strong mindset today, as they are already eliminated from playoff contention. Therefore, looking at the short spread line, I'll be taking the Nets in here on a Double Dime Play!
NBA - 709 Portland Trailblazers @ 710 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 17 points
We have a huge mismatch in here in both ends of the floor favoring the Nuggets. Portland is currently without their two best wing defenders in Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, something that is a disaster for them if we add the fact that Portland's interior defense is also very poor. This allows their opponents to pound them down low and this is why exactly what the Nuggets's offense does best, as they are #1 in the league in points in the paint per game! So, it isn't a surprise that Portland allowed an average of 54 points in the paint over their last 10 games!
The Blazers have been losing their games against top teams recently, with all those games being at home, where they are more competitive. On this road game at Denver, it will be very hard for the Blazers to remain competitive, as the Blazers have no depth to compete against the high power motor of the Nuggets. Portland's transition defense has been ridiculously bad lately with 1.31 PPP allowed on their last 10 games, so I expect Denver to pound them today. The Nuggets are coming from a tough overtime loss at Dallas and they are fighting to secure the #3 seed in the West, so I expect them to have a blowout win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Denver Nuggets (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Sacramento Kings @ 714 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: Houston by 6 points
Sacramento is coming from a relatively close loss at San Antonio, where they actually outscored the Spurs by 88-85 in the three last periods of the game, after a poor 13-23 first quarter. The Kings have some nice offensive weapons to torch the Rockets's poor defense, especially on spot up shooting and transitions. Houston is coming from a home loss against the Grizzlies, where their offense was very predictable without Chandler Parsons, who by the way is questionable for today. The Rockets's starters played a lot against the Kings in the game played between these two teams at Sacramento last week, with Chandler Parsons playing 40 minutes, James Harden 40 minutes and Omer Asik 36 minutes.
I believe things will be different tonight. The Rockets have already secured a spot in the playoffs and therefore, I wouldn't be surprise if they start to play their key players a bit less on these last games of the regular season, especially considering James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin have been physically banged up for most of the second half of the season. Therefore, I expect Houston's starters to play a lot less than the 40 minutes that they played last week in Sacramento and with that, the Rockets's lack of depth will get exposed, especially considering how decent the Kings's bench is for a lowly team. This depth edge should allow Sacramento to turn this game into a very competitive one and therefore, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Sacramento Kings (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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