NBA Free Premium Play 04/23: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Milwaukee  at Miami

NBA - 721 Milwaukee Bucks @ 722 Miami Heat Projected Line: Miami by 18 points Miami's superior athleticism on the perimeter on the defensive end is a terrible matchup for the Bucks's backcourt, preventing them from having big games. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings actually had decent shooting nights on the Game 1 of this series, but the team's overall offense was basically just their guards improvising off the dribble all the time and attempted contested poor shots. Milwaukee's ball movement was poor and I don't expect it to get any better today. The Heat's aggressive rotations and closeouts force Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy to put it on the floor, where they aren't comfortable. To make things even worse for them both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova looked clearly banged up, especially Sanders who was basically played at 50% of his skills. Milwaukee dished just 14 assists, they had just 7 transition plays against the Heat's quick defense and with Miami shooting well to the basket, the Bucks simply have no chance. On the other end, the Heat shot 21-23 FG at the rim on Game 1, they shot 56% FG and most of their missed shots were wide open attempts. Miami shot just 7-23 3pts, with Shane Battier shooting 1-7 3pts and Ray Allen 2-8. Most of these attempts were on great looks and it was actually uncharacteristic for them to miss so many of those shots, so I expect the Heat to shoot better from the perimeter tonight. The same thing should happen with their turnover numbers, as they had 19 in Game 1 and some of them were really sloppy. I was afraid that they would be a bit rusty as their starting lineup hadn't played together for a while and their turnovers number was indeed a bit higher than usual. On a matchup between a team who creates easy looks on offense in virtually every possession and a team that even though they made several contested poor shots still lost the Game 1 of this series by more than 20 points, I can only expect Miami to blowout Milwaukee once again tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Miami Heat (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker