NBA - 719 Memphis Grizzlies @ 720 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: LA Clippers by 3 points
From all the blowout wins that happened on the first game of the playoffs series, the Clippers's win over Memphis was the blowout whose result tells the least about what it happened on court during the game. With 10 minutes to go on the game, the Clippers were just up by 1 point, but their second unit led by Eric Bledsoe made a great run and helped their team in deciding the game in their favor. Until that run, all the small things went right for the Clippers, but the Grizzlies were still being competitive. The Clippers got some "lucky" rebounding going their way, Jamal Crawford hit a very contested three-pointer, while being fouled for a 3+1 play, with Chauncey Billups also making a lucky 2+1 jumper afterwards.
As expected in every game refereed by Scott Foster, the game had a huge amount of fouls, not allowing any kind of physically between players. Thanks to that, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph quickly got into foul trouble in the first quarter, with Mike Conley also getting in foul trouble later on. Thanks to that, these three players were on court for just 17, 25 and 28 minutes respectively and so, Memphis struggled as they don't have the great depth that the Clippers have.
The Grizzlies got crushed on the boards, where Memphis were doubled-up (47-23) and allowed the Clippers to correct 42% of their own misses. The Grizzlies's offensive rebound rate of 31.0 was second best in the NBA in the regular season, but on the Game 1 of this series, they secured barely more than 10 percent of their misses. Finally, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph weren't terrible offensively (combined of 29 points on 10-22 FG and 8 assists), but it wasn't enough because they combined for a shocking six rebounds in 45 minutes of play!
I don't expect this to happen once again tonight. I expect to see Memphis being more focused and especially also getting some lucky bounces going in their way as well. I believe the referees will allow more physical play than in Game 1 and this will only help the Grizzlies's physical style. Blake Griffin didn't look at 100% in Game 1 due to his back problems, but Zach Randolph couldn't capitalize on that due to foul trouble. Even though I give some edge to the Clippers down the stretch due to Chris Paul, I see Memphis being much more competitive tonight than the current spread line is predicting. Therefore, I'll be taking the Grizzlies in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Memphis Grizzlies (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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