Projected Line: NY Knicks by 4 points
Boston had an excellent first half in Game 1 in both ends of the floor. Their defense is always going to be a tough matchup for the Knicks, as their frontcourt is very mobile and with that, they can defend on the outside with no problems. The Knicks's offense is based on isolations, pick and roll ball handler plays and spot up shots, but Boston is an elite defense in all these three areas and this was shown in Game 1. On the other hand, there is a way to pound the Knicks on defense: size edge with post up plays, but the Knicks can counter that with double teams. so on the exact moments, the player doing the post up should be able to pass the ball to the team mate who is left wide open. Paul Pierce does that very well by allowing Avery Bradley to make some great cuts into the basket and this is why Pierce ended Game 1 with a game high of 7 assists. Another player who should be able to do the same as Pierce is Kevin Garnett. The problem of the Celtics's offense is that they committed 4/5 turnovers in the first half on entry passes! Besides those turnovers, Boston's offense was able to generate better looks than the Knicks, who perform another brickfest.
The key on Game 1 was Boston's offense on the second half. They stopped sharing the ball and driving into the basket. Perhaps tiredness may have been a factor, as Doc Rivers used just 8 players throughout the game, with Jeff Green playing 46 minutes and disappeared offensively on the second half. He was super aggressive on the first half on offense, while having to guard Carmelo Anthony on defense, so he was worn out down the stretch. On the other side, Carmelo Anthony and Raymond Felton also played more than 40 minutes, but Mike Woodson rotated his team more, with 3 bench players having almost the normal amount of minutes for a starter. With Pablo Priogioni back tonight, the Knicks will be a bit more vulnerable on defense. Doc Rivers mentioned after Game 1 that he wanted to use Jordan Crawford more in the following games and he will have a nice opportunity in here to attack the basket, while being defended by the slow footed Argentinian.
During Game 1, Boston outscored the Knicks by 4 points throughout the 39 minutes where Paul Pierce was on the court. The Knicks had a volume of 33% on isolation plays, 26% on spot ups and 13% on pick and roll ball handler plays. This isn't a surprise at all, but on the other hand, the Celtics was able to surprise the Knicks until they ran out of energy. I expect Doc Rivers to manage the team's rotation better and with that, Boston has a nice chance to make the upset tonight or at least be super competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking the Celtics in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Boston Celtics (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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