(Starting Pitchers: Y. Gallardo vs A. Wainwright)
We have a tremendous edge in terms of pitching on this contest. Yovani Gallardo is yet to lose a decision this season due to a great run support, but if his 5.73 ERA is worrying, his advanced stats clearly show that he is currently right now. He struggled on striking out hitters on his first two starts of the season with a 11.3% K% when his K% was always above 23% K% over the last four seasons. With Gallardo struggling to strike out his opponents, he is being more hittable and that's clearly a problem for him today, as he will face a Cardinals's roster that is hitting .321 BA and 1.003 OPS against him!
On the other side, Adam Wainwright has been excellent on his control this season with 6/0 + 6/0 K/BB on his first two starts of the season. He had a "poor outing" at Arizona, but that was due to bad luck, as his .524 BABIP in that game says it all. His advanced states on that outing also show that his "poor outing" was the result of bad luck, as he had a 1.10 FIP and a 2.29 xFIP in that start. After that game against the Dbacks, he played at San Francisco and dominated with just 2 ER allowed in seven innings. Milwaukee's offense is currently shorthanded and struggling a bit, so I expect Wainwright to dominate today. This should lead to an easy win for St Louis today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 St Louis Cardinals RL -1 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -122 / 1.82 on 5Dimes
MLB - 917 Chicago White Sox @ 918 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: C. Sale vs Z. McAllister)
The White Sox are currently on a 4-game losing streak and so, they will be fired up today to stop the streak. Their batters will have a nice matchup against Zach McAllister, who is a flyball pitcher who generally struggles against power hitting lineups like the White Sox. He had a nice first outing of the season at Tampa Bay, but the Rays's lineup has been struggling early on the season.
Chris Sale will start for the White Sox today and he looked well on his first two outings of the season. He will be a tough matchup for the Indians's lineup who is full of lefties, who already struggled yesterday against the also left-handed Jose Quintana. Cleveland's roster is hitting .208 BA and .607 OPS against Sale and so, I expect him to dominate today, while the White Sox's batters put McAllister in trouble, giving Chicago a nice bounce back win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Chicago White Sox ML (w/ C. Sale) @ -128 / 1.78 on 5Dimes
MLB - 921 Baltimore Orioles @ 922 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: J. Hammel vs P. Hughes)
Jason Hammel struggled on his first two starts of the season with 5.40 ERA, 4.45 FIP and 6.60 xFIP + 4.50 ERA, 5.10 FIP and 5.56 xFIP. This is especially concerning as he faced Tampa Bay and Minnesota, two teams who are respectively #28 with .621 OPS and #22 with .692 OPS against RH pitchers this season. He is also having too many flyballs (56.8% FB%) for the kind of pitcher that he generally is (+/- 30% FB%). He will now face the Yankees's batters who are #1 in the league with .895 OPS against RH pitchers this season, so I expect him to struggle a lot today.
On the other hand, Phil Hughes gave up eight hits in four innings on an outing at Detroit and he has been struggling with a stomach flu over the last few days. Today against the power hitting offense of the Orioles on a windy day, I expect this flyball pitcher to struggle today as well. With both pitchers struggling, I expect today's contest to be a high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921/922 Over 9 (w/ J. Hammel & P. Hughes) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes
MLB - 911 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks
(Starting Pitchers: H. Ryu vs I. Kennedy)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ H. Ryu) @ +114 / 2.14 on Betonline
MLB - 913 Colorado Rockies @ 914 San Diego Padres
(Starting Pitchers: J. Chacin vs E. Volquez)
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Chacin) @ -118 / 1.85 on 5Dimes
MLB - 927 Texas Rangers @ 928 Seattle Mariners
(Starting Pitchers: A. Ogando vs J. Saunders)
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 927 Texas Rangers ML (w/ A. Ogando) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment