NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

Denver  at Golden State

NBA - 734 Denver Nuggets @ 735 Golden State Warriors Projected Line: Golden State by 3 points In the Game 2 of this series, the Warriors used a small lineup with Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson playing together on the backcourt, while Harrison Barnes was sent into the PF position to defend Wilson Chandler, who isn't a bad matchup for the Warriors. This wasn't the first time at all that Golden State used this 3-guard combo, but what changed was Barnes at the PF position. The most curious part of this game was an in-game interview in mid-3rd quarter (GSW leading it by 96-80) where George Karl was asked what he would change to the game and he answered "play faster"! I had already mentioned that Golden State's offense is really a bad matchup for Denver, as their weakest point on defense is their spot up defense due to their focus being in packing the paint. Now for Game 3, it has been widely reported that George Karl will insert both Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler in the starting frontcourt, with a lineup composed by Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Andre Iguodala, Evan Fournier and Ty Lawson. Of course this lineup will be more mobile, however Faried is still a 50% physically right now. But still the Nuggets's defense isn't used to play with this lineup and there are no miracle changes in two days! Denver's main problem is that they need to have two key edges to beat Golden State: offensive rebounding (they won't have it with Faried as their center) and transition offense (as in a pure shooting battle between these two teams, the Warriors will outshoot them 9 times out of 10). It seems ridiculous that the Nuggets attempted one more three-pointer than Golden State in Game 2! On the other hand, the Warriors are being very smart on this series. They are abdicating of grabbing offensive boards just to go back to defense as soon as possible to prevent Denver from torching them on transitions, who scored just 8 fast break points who scored in Game 2! Denver should do a bit better on this area tonight, but they will still use a lineup without great shooting skills, besides Wilson Chandler who is an inconsistent shooter. So, the Nuggets are making a dangerous option with these changes tonight. Unlike Denver, Golden State is very familiarized with their 3-guards lineup. Stephen Curry will play even though he is a bit limited with an ankle injury right now, but with him on court, the Warriors will continue shooting well from the outside against the Nuggets. Golden State is the best spot up shooting team in the league, while Denver's spot up defense is the worst in the league, so no way the Warriors regress big time on their shooting tonight, in comparison to their insane Game 2 shooting. A small regression perhaps, but Golden State won't be shooting 30's% FG tonight. The Warriors seem more ready to play at a nice level tonight than the Nuggets and with the crowd fired up for their first home game of the postseason, I expect the Warriors to pick up an important win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Golden State Warriors (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker