NBA - 703 Golden State Warriors @ 704 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 4 points
We know how great the Nuggets have been this season at home, where they were close to invincible during the regular season. They have a lot of depth, but Danilo Gallinari's and Kenneth Faried's injuries are very concerning on this specific matchup against Golden State. Evan Fournier will start at the SG position on this game, a rookie out of France, he averaged just 11.6 minutes per game during the regular season. But thanks to a late-season surge via injuries to Danilo Gallinari/Kenneth Faried, he's earned the trust of coach George Karl. The Nuggets will roll with Ty Lawson, Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Kosta Koufos as their starters. Corey Brewer and Andre Miller will see significant time as guards off the bench.
Wilson Chandler will play at the PF position and even though he is a pretty decent player, he doesn't have the same rebounding skills that Faried possesses. Chandler is a way better shooter than Faried, but he shoots much further from the basket than Faried generally does, something that will remove the Nuggets's offensive game from near the rim, the area where their offense really excels. Note that Faried average 11.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg (4.5 off reb per game) and 2.3 bpg on the four games that Denver had against Golden State in the regular season. Andrew Bogut may be the key for the Warriors down low. Note that even though Bogut has been in and out of the lineup this season due to physical problems, Golden State was the best team in the league in defensive rebounding with a great 75.5% defensive rebound rate. With the Nuggets missing Faried, Golden State should prevent Denver from grabbing offensive boards today.
Denver's defensive system is built to pack the paint, get the defensive rebound and go out in transition. They gamble so much in order to force turnovers that obviously their perimeter defensive numbers can't be good. In fact, they were #20 in the league during the regular season on 3pts defense with 36.3% allowed and #30 in spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed. If there is a team that can pound Denver on their defensive weakness is Golden State, who led the league during the regular season in 3pts shooting with 40,3% and 42.1% after the All Star break!
Danilo Gallinari's absence is important for Denver because he would be a bad matchup for the Warriors's defense, as coach Mark Jackson loves to play Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson together during major minutes. So, a potential matchup against Denver playing with Danilo Gallinari and Andre Iguodala in the perimeter would cause a huge size edge favoring the Nuggets. Besides that, both Gallinari and Iguodala are excellent defenders, with the Italian player improving a lot defensively this season. With Fournier on the lineup instead, combined with Faried's recent injury, Denver will be a bit lost, as they aren't used to play without two of their most important players on the roster. I believe Golden State will be much more competitive than most people expect on this series and this will start on the Game 1 of the series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Golden State Warriors (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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