MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: B. Morrow vs A. Sanchez)
NOTE: No writeup for this contest
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ B. Morrow) @ +119 / 2.19 on 5Dimes
MLB - 910 Cincinnati Reds @ 911 St Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs L. Lynn)
Cincinnati's offense has been excellent on this early season. Joey Votto isn't still at 100%, but the rest of the lineup has been excellent, especially Todd Frazier (.414), Shin Soo-Choo (.379), Brandon Phillips (.344) and Jay Bruce (.324). The Reds will be facing Lance Lynn tonight, who is clearly struggling. I faded him on his last start at Arizona, after he struggled on Spring Training and he struggled indeed with 9.00 ERA, 7.03 FIP and 6.38 xFIP on that outing. He couldn't control his fastball and without that, he struggled big time. Now facing a red hot Reds's lineup, he's going to get pounded tonight. On the other side, veteran Bronson Arroyo looked very solid against the dangerous Angels's lineup on his first outing of the season, where he allowed three runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out five in six innings. He didn't allow any home runs and that's a good sign. In fact, his advanced numbers on that outing (1.86 FIP + 3.60 xFIP) were clearly better than his 4.50 ERA. With the Reds having a better SP tonight, a better bullpen and a better offense right now, I expect Cincinnati to win this game and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ B. Arroyo) @ +108 / 2.08 on Bovada
MLB - 913 Colorado Rockies @ 914 San Francisco Giants
(Starting Pitchers: J. Nicasio vs T. Lincecum)
Tim Lincecum is coming from a start where he was very lucky, as he walked 7 batters without getting punished from that. He was very lucky against the Dodgers, but I doubt that he will have the same amount of luck against a Colorado team that has been hitting well on this early season and who put Lincecum in a lot of problems last season: 4.41 ERA and .282 BA allowed in six games. The Rockies were even able to score two runs yesterday against a red hot Bumgarner and if they were able to put an ace pitcher in trouble (5 walks, 104 pitches in 5.2 innings), they should definitely put Lincecum in huge trouble today. On the other hand, Juan Nicasio allowed two runs on seven hits against the Brewers in six innings. It was a decent performance, but I don't believe he is good enough to have an immaculate performance tonight. I expect a relatively high scoring game tonight, with Colorado pounding Lincecum's command issues and with Nicasio having some minor trouble as well. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Rockies and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913/914 Over 7 (w/ J. Nicasio & T. Lincecum) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Nicasio) @ +113 / 2.13 on Betonline
MLB - 917 New York Yankees @ 918 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: A. Pettitte vs C. Carrasco)
Andy Pettitte was excellent on his first start of the season against Boston, where he allowed just one run and eight hits, while having 64 strikes in 94 pitches! He has a favorable matchup tonight against Cleveland, as the Indians's lineup is full of LH batters who struggle against LH pitchers like Pettitte, who showed last season that he is a much better pitcher against LH batters (2.32 FIP + 2.22 xFIP) than RH batters (4.04 FIP + 3.78 xFIP). On the other side, Carlos Carrasco will only start tonight because Scott Kazmir is injured. Carrasco didn't win a place in the rotation due to some clear struggles during Spring Training, where he posted a 6.00 ERA and a 6.5 K/9 in five games. He will face a Yankees's offense tha
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 New York Yankees ML (w/ A. Pettitte) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes
MLB - 919 Tampa Bay Rays @ 920 Texas Rangers
(Starting Pitchers: R. Hernandez vs N. Tepesch)
Roberto Hernandez may have lost his first start of the season against Baltimore, but he looked quite decent on it, with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings, a very good number for a groundball pitcher. On the other hand, Texas will start Nick Tepesch tonight, who will make his debut in Arlington tonight. He is very inexperienced at this level and his Spring Training numbers weren't impressive at all, as he allowed 24 hits in 18 innings, while posting a 6.50 ERA. I expect Hernandez to able to do a decent job tonight against the Rangers's lineup, while the Rays should have an excellent opportunity to pound the inexperienced Tepesch, who doesn't also seem to have the required level to be a MLB SP. Therefore, I see good value on the Rays tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ R. Hernandez) @ +119 / 2.19 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment